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FxWirePro: Favor EUR/USD top end range with “European knock in options”

Jun 14, 2017 08:27 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

EURUSD has traded between about 1.05 and 1.16 since 2015. While these bounds are pretty wide, this has been the longest period deprived of trends since the introduction of the single currency (refer above graph). EURUSD...

FxWirePro: What matters for choppy euro appreciation? RVs, IVs and skews to bid for OTM call strikes

Jun 14, 2017 08:10 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

As the FX markets focus returns to monetary policy, its relationship with interest rates will become more prominent. The last time that FX vol was durably in a low regime coincided with a period when central bank policies...

FxWirePro: Bullish and bearish scenarios, OTC indications and hedging solutions of USD/JPY

Jun 14, 2017 07:26 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Bearish: USD/JPY to 125 if 1) The strong US growth leads aggressive Fed hikes and a spike in UST yields, resulting in broad USD strength, 2) The Japanese governments fiscal policy becomes more expansionary and the...

FxWirePro: Why do Loonie seem vulnerable? Cover USD/CAD exposure risks with covered call strategy

Jun 13, 2017 13:10 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Last Friday, the front end of the Canadian rates market priced a 30% chance that rates would go up this year. One speech from BOC Senior Deputy-Governor Carolyn Wilkins later, and pricing is over 50%. She cited broadening...

FxWirePro: Strategic derivatives trades in global equities and FX space in H2’2017

Jun 13, 2017 12:54 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

In the US, despite the good economic backdrop, equity volatility has moved into oversold territory, and we illustrate this with a number of examples including an analysis of the business cycle. We advise caution in the...

FxWirePro: Cost-effective optionality structure to arrest RUB correction

Jun 13, 2017 10:52 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We turn bearish in RUB on the concern of commodity headwind and seasonally weaker current account outlook over the summer. We are more cautious of the commodity exporter, as terms of trade are unlikely to be favorable for...

FxWirePro: Beware of RUB correction and fetch benefits of high skew

Jun 13, 2017 09:55 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Please be noted that the IVs of RUB are the highest among G20 currency space. The volatility parameters favor structures that sell topside skew to cheapen up bullish USDRUB exposure. Being long USDRUB is a good hedge for a...

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Economy

The US is one of the least trade-oriented countries in the world – despite laying the groundwork for today’s globalized system

Given the spate of news about international trade lately, Americans might be surprised to learn that the U.S. isnt very dependent on it. Indeed, looking at trade as a percentage of gross domestic product a metric...

Beyond the spin, beyond the handouts, here’s how to get a handle on what’s really happening on budget night

Three weeks from now, some of us will be presented with a mountain of budget papers, and just about all of us will get to hear about them on radio, TV or news websites on budget night. The quickest way to find out what...

Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility

Ivan Vladislavić is Johannesburgs literary linkman. He tells us, in the first pages of his new book, The Near North, that before cities were lit, first by gaslight and later electricity, people of means paid torchbearers...

Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget

With Jim Chalmerss third budget on May 14, Australians will be looking for some more cost-of-living relief beyond the tax cuts although they have been warned extra measures will be modest. As this weeks consumer price...

Inflation is slowly falling, while student debt is climbing: 6 graphs that explain today’s CPI

Australias inflation rate has fallen for the fifth successive quarter, and its now less than half of what it was back in late 2022. The annual rate peaked at 7.8% in the December quarter of 2022 and is now just 3.6%, in...

Politics

US Urges China, Russia to Reject AI Control in Nuclear Arms, Align with Global Norms

Paul Dean, a senior U.S. arms control official, emphasized the critical need for China and Russia to join the U.S. in declaring that humans will always decide on the deployment of nuclear weapons, not artificial...

South Africa’s youth are a generation lost under democracy – study

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa recently painted a rosy picture in which the countrys youth democracys children had enormous opportunities for advancement, all thanks to successive post-apartheid governments led...

Sadiq Khan on track for third term as London mayor – but nearly half of Londoners dissatisfied with performance

Polls have consistently shown that the incumbent mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, appears to be on track to win a third term in office at the upcoming mayoral elections on May 2. One poll we commissioned as part of our...

Biden administration tells employers to stop shackling workers with ‘noncompete agreements’

Most American workers are hired at will: Employers owe their employees nothing in the relationship except earned wages, and employees are at liberty to quit at their option. As the rule is generally stated, either party...

Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board

To say that the Labour party is flying high in the polls is something of an understatement. But despite its consistent lead against the Tories, the opposition finds itself in a rather odd position: on the cusp of power but...

Science

IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects

About a trillion tiny particles called neutrinos pass through you every second. Created during the Big Bang, these relic neutrinos exist throughout the entire universe, but they cant harm you. In fact, only one of them is...

The Mars Sample Return mission has a shaky future, and NASA is calling on private companies for backup

A critical NASA mission in the search for life beyond Earth, Mars Sample Return, is in trouble. Its budget has ballooned from US$5 billion to over $11 billion, and the sample return date may slip from the end of this...

A Nasa rover has reached a promising place to search for fossilised life on Mars

While we go about our daily lives on Earth, a nuclear-powered robot the size of a small car is trundling around Mars looking for fossils. Unlike its predecessor Curiosity, Nasas Perseverance rover is explicitly intended to...

The rising flood of space junk is a risk to us on Earth – and governments are on the hook

A piece of space junk recently crashed through the roof and floor of a mans home in Florida. Nasa later confirmed that the object had come from unwanted hardware released from the international space station. The 700g,...

Peter Higgs was one of the greats of particle physics. He transformed what we know about the building blocks of the universe

Peter Higgs, who gave his name to the subatomic particle known as the Higgs boson, has died aged 94. He was always a modest man, especially when considering that he was one of the greats of particle physics the area of...

Technology

Tesla's Supercharger Shake-up Sparks Chaos: Suppliers in Limbo Over Email Directive

A turbulent email to suppliers reveals internal discord in the wake of Teslas sweeping Supercharger team termination. The abrupt restructuring has left projects in limbo, signaling potential operational turmoil within the...

US Loosens EV Battery Rules, Expands Tax Credit Eligibility Amid Controversy

Amidst escalating tensions over electric vehicle (E.V.) tax credits, the U.S. government has relaxed stringent regulations, potentially widening eligibility for tax credits up to $7,500. This move, aimed at accelerating...

SHIB, BONK, WIF's Sudden Price Jumps; What's Behind Them?

Recent surges in the cryptocurrency market have caught the attention of traders, particularly with tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB), Bonk (BONK), and Dogwifhat (WIF) experiencing notable price hikes. Analysts attribute this...

Snowden Issues Final Bitcoin Warning, Takes Aim at Elon Musk and Puppy-Killing Politician

Edward Snowden, the famed whistleblower and advocate for privacy, sent shockwaves across social media platforms with his latest flurry of posts. Targeting Bitcoin developers, tech mogul Elon Musk, and South Dakota Governor...

Samsung Chief Lee Jae-yong Wraps Up Europe Visit, Includes Vatican and Zeiss

Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong returned to Seoul this Friday after a crucial ten-day European trip, where he met with Pope Francis and explored potential business collaborations. The Korea Herald reported...