FxWirePro: What’s all about going long in EUR/USD 2y calls and shorting downside risk?
Jun 15, 2017 13:03 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
The FX options market is very liquid up to the 2y expiry. This is an appropriate horizon to capture a scenario whereby EURUSD surges to 1.30. In addition, we want to go long vol via calls, as topside vega is going to...
FxWirePro: Euro area – A benevolent vols atmosphere brands as bullish call for chasing equity space
Jun 15, 2017 11:42 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
The European equities are recording the best earnings data since 2010. The Eurozone benefits from better valuations, improving macro data, fading political risk, slowly normalizing inflation expectations and...
Jun 15, 2017 09:57 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
With extremely low volatility and expectations of a stable USDCNH, the market prefers the carry trade again. Taking one-year tenor as an example, the implied yields of CNH is above 4%. In other words, as long as USDCNH...
FxWirePro: Bullish, bearish scenarios, OTC indications and hedging vehicles of sterling
Jun 15, 2017 09:34 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks
Bearish sterling scenarios: 1) The UK growth slows below 1% as consumers are squeezed by inflation and falling house prices. 2) Outright capital repatriation from slower moving long-term investors including central...
FxWirePro: Deploy DXY straddles on dual reading of overnight volatility ahead of FOMC
Jun 14, 2017 12:42 pm UTC| Central Banks Research & Analysis Insights & Views
The old conflict between what the market expects and what the Fed suggests has been re-ignited. This does not involve a rate hike expected for today which is completely priced in on the market and which therefore...
FxWirePro: Low vol plus flat curve in sync with buying EUR/USD forward vols
Jun 14, 2017 12:07 pm UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
After the French presidential election, the EURUSD volatility curve aggressively sold off, reaching its lowest level since 2014. Since then, implied vols have bounced only very timidly and are still very close to their...
FxWirePro: Chinese flow of investments slowdown, Is volatility underpricing China tail risks?
Jun 14, 2017 11:02 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views
As expected by us, Chinas investment growth slowed. Latest data showed that Chinas fixed asset investment grew 8.6% YoY year-to-date in May, below market expectations and previous reading at 8.9%. After seasonal...
Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility
Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget
Biden administration tells employers to stop shackling workers with ‘noncompete agreements’
Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board
IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects