May spending figures show that U.S. consumption is back on track and firmly
Jun 25, 2015 15:07 pm UTC| Commentary
U.S. personal spending rose by 0.9% M/M in nominal terms, springing back to life after Aprils near flat reading (revised from 0.0% to +0.1%). In real terms, consumer expenditures rose a robust 0.6% M/M, above the consensus...
U.S. economy is rebounding from that weak first quarter
Jun 25, 2015 14:31 pm UTC| Commentary
U.S. personal spending jumped 0.9% in May, on the high end of the range of expectations and the largest increase since August 2009. In real-terms, the gain (of 0.6%) was also impressive, along with the upward revisions...
UK monetary policy uncertainty replaces fiscal uncertainty
Jun 25, 2015 12:22 pm UTC| Commentary
The combination of weak domestic wage pressure and falling food and energy prices has caused a further postponement of rate tightening in the UK. The first hike now priced for Q3 16.According to Barclays, the MPC is likely...
Greece remains a risk but periphery offers value outright
Jun 25, 2015 12:08 pm UTC| Commentary
The widening in EGB spreads because of concerns regarding Greece has been across the board in the periphery and core/semi-core spaces, with 10y Italian and Spanish spreads versus Germany widening by c.45bp and 10y French...
Notable sell-off in euro bunds is unlikely
Jun 25, 2015 12:01 pm UTC| Commentary
The economic outlook in the euro area has been improving gradually since the beginning 2015. According to Barclays, there has not been a significant sustainable shift to qualify the recent sell-off as fundamental. Indeed,...
CNY devaluation unlikely, but stay long USD/CNY
Jun 25, 2015 11:20 am UTC| Commentary
China government is easing monetary and fiscal policy to support economic growth, which remains a concern, to help curb deflation risks while refraining from raising USDCNY fixings.Despite weak external demand, the...
China to lower borrowing costs
Jun 25, 2015 11:14 am UTC| Commentary
Chinese policymakers have begun to work on lowering borrowing costs in three ways, easing monetary policy, deepening capital markets and transferring risk from government corporates to the government.This should be...
Johannesburg in a time of darkness: Ivan Vladislavić’s new memoir reminds us of the city’s fragility
Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the coming budget
Labour can afford to be far more ambitious with its economic policies – voters are on board
Sudan: civil war stretches into a second year with no end in sight