Colombia should underperform Peru further

Jul 24, 2015 03:56 am UTC| Commentary

Colombia has marginally underperformed peers such as Peru and Mexico. While for Peru, the more limited exchange rate flexibility may compound adverse effects from lower commodity prices over time, the still comfortable...

Colombia remains the weakest link in LatAm IG

Jul 24, 2015 03:55 am UTC| Commentary

Elsewhere in the LatAm IG credit space, Colombia remains the weakest link, given its fiscal reliance on the oil sector and the expectation that fiscal reform will not happen in the short term.In the absence of structural...

China Factory estimate Hits 15-Month Low in July

Jul 24, 2015 03:46 am UTC| Commentary

Chinese factory production contracted at the steepest pace in 15 months in July, according to a survey of purchasing managers, highlighting why economists expect to see further efforts to stimulate growth in the coming...

Commodity prices to see broad-based declines

Jul 24, 2015 03:45 am UTC| Commentary

The broad-based declines in commodity prices in recent weeks hark back to the weakness in Q4 14-Q1 15. Whereas, macroeconomic risks, particularly out of China could limit upside demand surprises, supply surprises appear...

FX and commodity prices, more tightly linked

Jul 24, 2015 03:43 am UTC| Commentary

The prospects for commodity prices are crucial to EMs not only because they tend to have a higher concentration of commodity producers, but also are affected by common demand side factors for their other major...

Commodity exporter countries would likely need further monetary policy support

Jul 24, 2015 03:38 am UTC| Commentary

The potential pass through of lower commodity prices into inflation and its effect on fiscal outcomes have implied more dovish monetary policy in EMs and tolerance for FX depreciation. This dynamic is likely to continue...

Copom to make a monetary policy decision next week

Jul 24, 2015 03:34 am UTC| Commentary

Next week the Copom will make a monetary policy decision, currently the markets are largely pricing in a 25bp hike. Both decisions should be considered by the board given the different movements of economic variables since...