Reserve Bank of India: On hold for now, but on course for further easing

Aug 07, 2015 01:08 am UTC| Commentary

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its key policy rates unchanged this week, but gave hints of further easing in upcoming meetings. With the banks monetary policy stance turning softer, the central bank is on course to...

Falling oil keeps RUB under pressure, monetary policy doesn't help

Aug 07, 2015 00:40 am UTC| Commentary

Last weeks CBR decision to cut the key rate by 50bp to 11.0% clearly added to the vulnerability of the RUB and looks increasingly like a mistake. However, there does not appear to be overshooting yet and, if oil price and...

Brazil: More volatility as hiking cycle ends and ratings outlook deteriorates

Aug 07, 2015 00:31 am UTC| Commentary

A worsening in the sovereigns external outlook should imply a weaker currency and a higher tolerance for heightened inflation in an environment in which Brazils growth picture looks uncertain."We read the recent COPOM...

MYR and MGS vulnerable as fundamentals deteriorate

Aug 07, 2015 00:20 am UTC| Commentary

Lower oil, a high level of foreign ownership of local bonds, increased level of offshore borrowing and the recent increase in political noise have all hurt the MYR relative to other Asia FX. Although recent efforts by the...

Argentina’s par bonds: Unjustified acceleration premium; switch into EUR from USD pars

Aug 06, 2015 23:46 pm UTC| Commentary

The price differential between USD and EUR pars has widened from 2pts in January to 7pts at present, likely driven by the pricing in of an acceleration premium into USD pars. Little justification is seen for this premium,...

Developed markets resilient as emerging markets struggle

Aug 06, 2015 23:11 pm UTC| Commentary

Investor fear headed east in July from Greece to China. As Greeces avoidance of Grexit for now faded from the spotlight, markets instead focused on the steep sell-off in Chinese equities. Major Chinese indices are still up...

GBP weakened both against the EUR and USD following the policy announcement

Aug 06, 2015 22:32 pm UTC| Commentary

The market was clearly positioned for a more hawkish BoE today and GBP swap rates are 3-4bp lower across the curve. For now, the BoE is expected to hike in Q4 15 (most likely in November) but it depends on the development...