Nothing has changed in Brazil

Dec 13, 2015 23:45 pm UTC| Commentary

No pause is expected in BRL weakness, as the future of the current government is as uncertain as it was before. We will probably not get any clarity before year-end. Without long-term growth, we cannot envision an...

Euro area inflation too low, EUR too high

Dec 13, 2015 23:22 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Longer-term inflation expectations dropped again after the ECB meeting, and the most recent flash estimate of core HICP inflation disappointed significantly and should be confirmed on Wednesday at 0.9% y/y (versus initial...

Feeling the drag from China

Dec 13, 2015 22:59 pm UTC| Commentary

The Chinese authorities determination to prevent further CNY weakness has waned lately. FX intervention has apparently been scaled back, and the pace of CNY depreciation has accelerated since the start of December. With...

SEK, NOK: Scandies narrowly on hold

Dec 13, 2015 22:40 pm UTC| Commentary

The Riksbank is expected to keep policy unchanged but retain an easing bias (Tuesday). The uninspiring ECB meeting and the prospect for a higher-lower-bound in euro area rates, have alleviated near-term pressure for the...

UK price pressures remain absent

Dec 13, 2015 22:13 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

UK data this week should highlight extremely low UK price pressures and support increasingly dovish Bank of England rhetoric, keeping downward pressure on sterling. Consensus expect headline CPI inflation (Tuesday) to be...

RBA likely concerned by relative currency strength

Dec 13, 2015 21:59 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The RBA board minutes are due on Tuesday, and they are expected to show that the board has been encouraged by signs of stronger activity, as well as more evidence that the latest round of macroprudential measures is...

Oil and Fed driving the loonie

Dec 13, 2015 21:47 pm UTC| Commentary

A more expansive fiscal stance has started in Canada, with the approval of a tax cut for the middle class, starting on January 1. The federal budget for fiscal year 2016-17, which should be presented to Parliament in Q1...