US jobless measures expected to dip to levels last seen in early 2008

The BLS' canvass of households likely will echo the upbeat tone of the nonfarm job survey. Assuming that the recent relationship between the establishment and household employment measures held reasonably steady during the reference period, the latter series probably rebounded by 175,000 in October, reversing almost three quarters of September's surprising 236,000 drop. 

The civilian labor force is expected to eke out only a modest 15,000 rise during the reference period, however, following the 350,000 contraction posted in the prior month. Taken together, the projections would leave the unemployment rate two ticks lower at 4.9% (4.948% unrounded) - the lowest level since February 2008. Broader labor slack gauges are expected to follow suit this month. 

"Our conventional unemployment rate forecast would be consistent with the BLS' broader U-6 measure, which includes both marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, dipping to 9.9% - the tightest reading since May 2008", says Societe Generale.

With the civilian population expected to expand by 240,000 in October, the participation rate would move one tick lower to 62.3% - the lowest reading since September 1977.