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The Census Bureau's Quarterly Services Survey (QSS), released this morning for Q3 15, showed slightly less spending on services and software than the BEA had assumed in its second estimate of Q3 GDP. The BEA uses data on service sector revenues and expenses from the QSS to revise its estimate portions of services consumption and intellectual property investment in between the second and third estimates of quarterly GDP.
The second estimate of Q3 GDP reported that real services consumption grew 2.2% q/q saar and real private software investment rose 1.0% q/q saar. The data suggest that actual spending in these categories came in just shy of BEA assumptions, with the shortfall spread about evenly between PCE and intellectual property investment.
"We estimate that real consumption growth will be revised down by one-tenth, to 2.9%, and that real intellectual property investment will be revised down to -2.4% (initial: -0.9%). Together, these expected downward revisions trimmed our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one-tenth to 1.8%. Our Q4 GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at 1.7%",says Barclays.
