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The United States’ 10-year Treasury yield is expected to drift lower on account of the Fed’s stance shift rather than rising flight-to-quality demand, which could boost risk appetite afterwards and prop up risk assets including US stocks, according to the latest research report from Scotiabank.
In addition, the Fed easing rate hikes next year would buoy high-yielding and high-beta currencies such as the INR, IDR, KRW and THB in the region, particularly if the US and China do agree to a ceasefire in the trade war as we expect at the upcoming Trump-Xi Summit set for December 1.
The Fed has released the minutes of the November 7-8 FOMC meeting, affirming a December rate hike. The central bank is also expected to increasingly rely on economic data for its future decision making. Moreover, the Fed will hold press conference after every policy meeting starting in 2019, meaning all sessions are live.
According to the minutes, the US central bank reckons "monetary policy was not on a preset course; if incoming information prompted meaningful reassessments of the economic outlook and attendant risks, either to the upside or the downside, their policy outlook would change."
Earlier on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Economic Club of New York that interest rates are "just below" a range of estimates of the so-called neutral level, easing investor worries about an aggressive increase in interest rates.
Both Fed Funds Futures and Eurodollar Futures are indicating the prospect of fewer rate hikes in the year of 2019 than three rate rises predicted in the September "dot plot" forecasts.
"We believe reaching a framework agreement at the Summit is in both Trump and Xi’s interest and reckon the comprehensive competition between the US and China will likely continue for decades. US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is very close to "doing something" with China ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping," the reported commented.
