RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy: Preview

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issues a Statement on Monetary Policy four times a year. The statement sets out the central bank's assessment of current economic conditions, both domestic and international, along with the outlook for Australian inflation and output growth.

There was little change from the RBA at its policy meeting earlier this week. The statement that followed noted that the RBA sees GDP growth returning to 3 percent over the next couple of years, while its inflation forecasts are said to be “largely unchanged”. The market is now closely awaiting RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) on Friday.

"We expect Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) to highlight that while the growth outlook remains positive, inflation is low and likely to remain low. We continue to see rates on hold at 1.5%." said ANZ markets in a report.

Uncertainty around the global political and trade outlook to keep the Bank’s assessment of key risks largely unchanged. Of concern to the RBA would be China's overcapacity and high debt levels, slack in the Australian labour market and outlook for global trade given Trump's protectionist politics nnd the Brexit vote.

AUD/NZD was hovering around 5-DMA, intraday bias remained neutral. Stiff resistance is seen at 0.7685 (trendline), while major support on the downside lies at 0.7580 (20-day MA). A daily close below 5-DMA will likely increase the bearish bias. Breach at 20-DMA could see test of 0.7493 (200-day MA).