Poland’s industrial output and retail sales growth likely slowed a bit in March

Poland’s industrial production is expected to have declined a bit in March, according to Societe Generale. The output growth likely fell to 4.3% y/y last month, while, manufacturing and the water supply growth are expected to have mainly driven the growth in industrial output, noted Societe Generale. Last month, growth in car production fell to -3.6% y/y from February’s 2.3%. This creates risk on the downside for industrial output. The PMI rose from 52.8p to 53.8p with the help of solid new orders growth. Hence, growth in industrial output might accelerate in following months, said Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, the producer prices of Poland are expected to have fallen from -1.4% in February to -1.5% y/y in March, added Societe Generale. The figure is expected to have remained unchanged in month-on-month terms. Also, mining prices component is expected to have declined -0.3% m/m.

“The PPI is likely to remain below zero for the duration of 2016”, noted Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, Poland’s retail sales are likely to have decelerated a bit from February’s 3.9% y/y growth to 3.8% y/y in March, added Societe Generale. Retail sales are expected to have grown 17.3% m/m. Food sales and non-specialized stores sales are likely to have mainly driven March’s retail sales.