The Copom minutes will be the most important release in the week ahead. After keeping the Selic rate unchanged at 14.25% and changing the convergence of inflation to the "relevant horizon for monetary policy" instead of the end of 2016, markets will try to get more information regarding the aforementioned "horizon."
It will be a soft commitment as the direction of the economic activity and debt dynamics does not allow them to increase interest rates in the foreseeable future. As such, recent developments are supportive to the trade recommendations of being long USDBRL via options and and a NTN-F curve steepener, as some hikes are priced in the months to come and fiscal risk premia high is poised to remain high amid a lack of political certainty.


RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.10% in Closest Vote Since Transparent Voting Began
Global Central Banks Hold Rates Amid Iran War-Driven Energy Price Surge
ECB Eyes Rate Hike Amid Iran Conflict-Driven Energy Price Surge
Bank of Korea Nominee Shin Hyun-song Calls for Flexible Monetary Policy Amid Iran War Risks
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Uncertainty
Goldman Sachs Raises ECB Rate Hike Forecast Amid Persistent Energy-Driven Inflation
Australia Bans Card Payment Surcharges Starting October 2025
China Holds Benchmark Loan Prime Rate Steady for Tenth Consecutive Month
Taiwan Central Bank Expected to Hold Interest Rates Steady Through 2027
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Middle East Conflict Clouds Inflation Outlook 



