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FxWirePro: 14th February Key updates

Here are some key updates that as a trader you need to keep a tab on.

Brexit: voting due on key amendments; three amendments to be specific,

  • Labour Party’s amendment

Calls for parliament to be given either a vote on a revised deal by 27 February or debate on the next steps following a statement that there is no principle agreement with Brussels by the same date.
 

  • SNP amendment

Calls for the government to seek a delay to Brexit by at least three months.
 

  • Soubry amendment

Calls on the government to publish an analysis of the impact of a no-deal Brexit outcome on business and trade over the next seven days.
 

It is likely that all three amendments would fail to pass. Earlier today, UK’s Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay told parliament that it is necessary to keep the no-deal Brexit on the table to squeeze better terms from EU. Prime Minister’s spokesperson also reiterated that a no-deal Brexit remains on the table.

Comments from BoE’s Vlieghe:

  • The main message that came out that the central bank would remain in a wait and watch mode until Brexit and would take actions after if necessary, which can be rate hikes or cuts. However, Mr. Vlieghe pointed out that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, rate cuts are likely to be more appropriate.

Weakness in the German economy:

  • German ZEW Institute warned the economic growth could further slowdown in 2019. As the economy stalled in the final months of 2018, overall yearly growth likely to be 1.5 percent. ZEW institute warns that it might fall to 1 percent in 2019.
  • However, German economy minister Peter Altmaier followed up by suggesting that the economy remains strong and the current slowdown is due to uncertainties surrounding trade and Brexit. According to him, the ongoing construction boom is likely to continue and private consumption likely to do well too.

Venezuela oil crisis:

  • January OPEC report showed that Venezuela’s oil production dwindled to a new low of 1.1 million barrels.
  • IEA, in its monthly oil report, warned that geopolitical crisis in Venezuela could trigger a major supply crunch, especially in the crude grade that Venezuela produces.
  • However, Russia oil minister Alexander Novak warned that currently there are no proposals in the table to address the Venezuela situation and OPEC would hold its regular meeting in April to assess the agreement.

Sino-American trade war:

  • There is an ongoing speculative rumor in the market that President Trump might extend the tariff deadline by 60 days.

Switzerland’s inflation was weaker than expected,

  • January producer and import prices -0.7 percent vs -0.4 percent m/m expected. Prior -0.6 percent.
  • Producer and import prices -0.5 percent vs -0.2 percent y/y expected. Prior +0.6 percent.

German GDP weaker than expected,

  • Q4 preliminary GDP 0.0 percent vs +0.1 percent q/q expected. Prior (Q3) -0.2 percent.
  • Preliminary GDP (non-seasonally adjusted) +0.9 percent vs +0.8 percent y/y expected. Prior +1.1 percent.
  • Preliminary GDP (working-day adjusted) +0.6 percent vs +0.7 percent y/y expected. Prior +1.1 percent.

French employment strong,

  • Q4 ILO unemployment rate 8.8 percent vs 9.1 percent expected. Prior 9.1 percent.
  • ILO mainland unemployment rate 8.5 percent vs 8.8 percent expected. Prior 8.8 percent.

Strong PPI from the United States,

  • PPI YoY 2.1 percent vs 2.0 percent estimate
  • MoM -0.1 percent vs 0.1 percent estimate
  • Excluding food and energy, +0.3 percent versus 0.2 percent expected. prior month revised to 0.0 percent from -0.1 percent

But, weaker retail sales report,

  • December retail sales -1.2 percent vs +0.1 percent m/m expected. The worst figure since 2009.

 

 

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