The United States Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, while speaking at an event in Philadelphia, affirmed her conviction of positivity on the overall outlook of the US economy, while warning that investors and other Fed watchers should not be too wary about the recently released jobs report.
While she admitted that the economy is need of a rate hike, she remained silent on the specifics of the move. However, market expectations have grown for a rate hike in September, although a later move also remains on the cards.
Despite the labor report showing only a nominal 38,000 jobs being added to the sector, far below analysts’ expectations, Yellen maintained a dovish tone, saying that wages are likely to improve over time. She also made a note that initial jobless claims and other consumer surveys are evidence that offsets the weakness in the recent employment data.
However, she remained struck a cautious tone while speaking over the Fed’s inflation target, which seemed less progressive. She perceives that the effects of an appreciating dollar and declining oil prices will fade towards the end of the year, expecting inflation to return gradually over the next couple of years.
According to Barclays, the odds seem to fade out for a June 2016 rate hike, given the still evolving US economy.
"Although this recent labor market report was, on balance, concerning, let me emphasize that one should never attach too much significance to any single monthly report," she said during her speech.
We maintain our consensus that if the labor market improves along with the targeted level of inflation, probabilities seem higher for a rate hike in September, than any time later. This, however, is deliverable along with a rebound in the US labor market.


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