Fed Confirms Rate Meeting Schedule Despite Severe Winter Storm in Washington D.C. 
U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
ECB’s Cipollone Backs Digital Euro as Europe Pushes for Payment System Independence 
BOJ Policymakers Warn Weak Yen Could Fuel Inflation Risks and Delay Rate Action 
ECB Signals Steady Interest Rates as Fed Risks Loom Over Outlook 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 29th July)
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 21.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 78.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 57.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 28.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 33.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 44.5percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 15.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 19.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 37.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 33.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased on the back of strong data.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 100 percent probability in 2019, compared to 100 percent last week.
- The market is pricing a second rate cut with 90.3 percent probability, compared to 92.1 percent a week ago, and 89.6 percent in the week before that.
- The market is also pricing a third rate cut in 2019 with 56.6 percent probability, compared to 53.5 percent a week ago, and 49.4 percent in the week before that.
- The first-rate cut is priced for July 2019 with 100 percent probability. The second rate cut is priced in October with 84.3 percent probability.
