BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Sticky Inflation, Weak Yen Shape USD/JPY and Nikkei Outlook 
RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Possible as Australia Battles Stubborn Inflation 
Japan PM Sanae Takaichi Unveils Growth Plan as BOJ Independence Concerns Lift Bond Yields 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady for 14th Month as Economic Recovery Remains Uneven 
Eurozone Bond Yields Fall as Oil Slump Eases Inflation Fears Ahead of Central Bank Meetings 
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady as Kevin Warsh Says Rising Treasury Yields Tighten Financial Conditions 
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FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 29th July)
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 21.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 78.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 57.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 28.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 33.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 44.5percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 15.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 19.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 37.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 33.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased on the back of strong data.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 100 percent probability in 2019, compared to 100 percent last week.
- The market is pricing a second rate cut with 90.3 percent probability, compared to 92.1 percent a week ago, and 89.6 percent in the week before that.
- The market is also pricing a third rate cut in 2019 with 56.6 percent probability, compared to 53.5 percent a week ago, and 49.4 percent in the week before that.
- The first-rate cut is priced for July 2019 with 100 percent probability. The second rate cut is priced in October with 84.3 percent probability.
