Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September 
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets – for good reasons 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 23rd July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 85.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 81.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 8.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 3.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 36 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 54.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 5.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 34.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 52.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 8.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased for near month and tightened for the far month.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 85.7 percent probability compared to 86.8 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 60.3 percent probability instead of 55.6 percent probability just a week ago.
