Supreme Court Backs Lisa Cook, Defends Federal Reserve Independence Against Trump Firing Attempt 
BOJ Signals More Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Price Pressures 
Taiwan Central Bank Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Through 2027 
Indonesia Plans Higher Asset Yields to Boost Rupiah and Restore Investor Confidence 
RBI Hits Pause as Geopolitical Storm Clouds Gather 
RBA Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 4.35% as Markets Watch AUD/USD and ASX 200 
Malaysia Central Bank Moves to Support Ringgit Amid Foreign Fund Outflows 
Japan Signals Surprise Yen Intervention Strategy as BOJ Hawkish Stance Puts FX Traders on Alert 
BOJ Hawk Signals Faster Interest Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Risks 
South Korea Signals Possible Interest Rate Hike as Inflation Remains Elevated 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 23rd July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 85.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 81.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 8.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 3.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 36 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 54.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 5.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 34.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 52.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 8.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased for near month and tightened for the far month.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 85.7 percent probability compared to 86.8 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 60.3 percent probability instead of 55.6 percent probability just a week ago.
