BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Sticky Inflation, Weak Yen Shape USD/JPY and Nikkei Outlook 
Japan Economy Minister Downplays Inflation Risks Despite BOJ Warning 
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady as Kevin Warsh Says Rising Treasury Yields Tighten Financial Conditions 
RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Possible as Australia Battles Stubborn Inflation 
Eurozone Bond Yields Fall as Oil Slump Eases Inflation Fears Ahead of Central Bank Meetings 
Japan Services Producer Prices Rise 3.2% in June, Supporting BOJ Rate Hike Expectations 
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
After disappointing payroll number on Friday, which showed headline gains of just 38,000, market participants rolled back their expectations for future hikes from U.S. Federal Reserve. Last two month’s payroll numbers also saw downward revisions in tune of 59,000.
Before the payroll report market was pricing 21% chance of a hike in June and more than 50% chance of a hike in July.
Weaker NFP report dealt a severe blow to the expectations.
As of Now,
- Market is pricing just a 4% chance of a hike in June, thanks to British referendum and disappointing NFP.
- Probability of no hike in July is at 66%.
- Likelihood of a September hike currently stands at 46%.
It is not until the November, Market is pricing a hike and that too a feeble one. Fed funds future shows just 51% chance of a hike. December odds look more convincing, with 63% odds.
Chance of a second hike this year has fallen below 20%.
Hence, Dollar is weak and trading around 94 area.
