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The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% on April 17, according to a Reuters poll of 37 economists. This marks the second pause in the central bank’s rate-cutting cycle, which began in October. The previous hold came in January as policymakers assessed political instability's economic impact.
With growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war and extreme currency volatility, the BOK is taking a cautious stance. Exports, which account for nearly half of South Korea’s GDP, are vulnerable to global trade tensions. A recent 90-day tariff reprieve helped the Korean won rebound slightly after it plunged to a 16-year low on April 9.
Of those surveyed, 24 economists foresee a hold this month, while 13 expect a 25 basis point cut. However, 27 of 30 analysts predict the BOK will lower the rate to 2.50% in May, with more easing likely next quarter.
Kathleen Oh, chief Korea economist at Morgan Stanley, said the BOK is likely to deliver a dovish hold in April while monitoring the impact of reciprocal tariffs and market volatility. She anticipates a downward revision of South Korea’s growth forecast in May.
Despite the temporary tariff relief, uncertainty remains. Economist Stephen Lee from Meritz Securities noted that although South Korea may secure an early waiver, the broader tariff measures were more extensive than anticipated. He argued the BOK must adjust its assumptions and respond proactively with further rate cuts.
By year-end, over half of economists expect rates to drop to 2.25%, a level seen as neutral for the economy. Nine forecast even deeper cuts to 2.00% or below, reflecting mixed expectations amid ongoing global trade uncertainty.
