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David McMillan

Professor in Finance, University of Stirling
I obtained a PhD from the University of Swansea in 1998. I have held positions in the Universities of Aberdeen, Durham and St Andrews. My research focuses on:

* Over-Arching Theme of Empirical Finance: Especially time-series modelling and the investigation of non-linear dynamics within data. Work includes the use of data on stock markets, futures and forward markets, interest rates and exchange rates (nominal and real). Do non-linear models provide better forecasts, and the implication for efficiency, both in terms of profit making, and whether prices reflect their fair value, for example, the relationship between prices and dividends, and arbitrage relationship in spot and future and interest rate dynamics.

* Modelling and Forecasting Volatility and Realised Volatility: especially the use of intra-day data and the implications for risk management and whether academic models provide superior performance in the areas of hedging and VaR calculation.

* Predicting Stock Returns and the Relationship between Macroeconomic and Financial Data: examining the nature of the predictive equation and its implications for asset pricing. What economic variables help explain predictability.

UK bonds have hit a 25-year high – here's what that means for the economy

Oct 07, 2023 14:21 pm UTC| Economy

Its been more than a year since the UK economy was thrown into crisis after then-prime minister Liz Truss suggested making a wealth of unfunded tax cuts in her September 2022 mini-budget. But a recent bond market sell-off...

UK bonds are in meltdown again – what does that mean for pensions?

May 29, 2023 05:10 am UTC| Economy

UK government debt prices have taken an unnerving journey south in the past few days. The closely watched ten-year bond has now hit a yield of 4.3%, taking it within a fraction of the level that caused a crisis in autumn...

Inflation: there's a vital way to reduce it that everyone overlooks – raise productivity

May 28, 2022 10:57 am UTC| Economy

Inflation has become one of the great issues of our times. The UKs is the highest in the G7, weighing in at 9% a year according to the most recent figures on consumer price inflation. When you look at the other common...

Economy

Asian Currencies Slip as Dollar Holds Firm, Yen Near Four-Decade Low Ahead of Fed, Jobs Data

Asian currencies mostly weakened on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar remained resilient, while the Japanese yen hovered near its weakest level in nearly four decades, keeping traders alert for potential intervention by...

Asian Stocks Mixed as South Korea Slides on Profit-Taking, Japan and China Gain on Strong Factory Data

Asian stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday, with South Korean equities leading regional losses as investors locked in profits after an exceptional second-quarter rally. Meanwhile, stronger manufacturing data from Japan...

Oil Prices Rise as U.S.-Iran Talks Keep Geopolitical Risks in Focus

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace negotiations continued to support crude markets, even as record U.S. oil production pointed to improving global supply. Traders remained...

Gold Price Drops to Eight-Month Low as Fed Rate Hike Bets Weigh on Bullion. Source: Photo by Michael Steinberg via Pexels

Gold prices extended their losses during Asian trading on Wednesday, with bullion hovering near an eight-month low after recording its steepest quarterly decline in 13 years. Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve...

UN Chief Urges Nations to Close $100 Million UNRWA Funding Gap

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has appealed to member states to urgently fill a $100 million funding gap facing the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), warning...

Politics

JD Vance Criticizes Vatican on Immigration, Defends Trump Border Policies

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said he disagrees with the Vaticans position on immigration, calling some of its recent comments troubling after Pope Leo repeatedly criticized President Donald Trumps immigration policies and...

U.S. Military Expands Venezuela Earthquake Relief Mission as Troop Presence Tops 900

The United States has significantly expanded its military presence in Venezuela to support humanitarian relief efforts following last weeks devastating earthquakes, with more than 900 U.S. personnel now operating inside...

Ukraine Preparing for Possible Russian Offensive From Bryansk, Military Chief Says

Ukraine is preparing for a possible new Russian offensive from the countrys northern border, although a direct assault on Kyiv is considered unlikely, according to Ukraines top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi....

Trump Prioritizes Iran Diplomacy Over Military Action as Nuclear Talks Continue

President Donald Trump has decided to keep diplomatic negotiations with Iran on track for now, despite recently reviewing options for renewed large-scale military action, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing...

NATO Albania Summit Faces Uncertainty as Trump, Defense Spending Concerns Loom

Plans for NATO to hold its 2027 leaders summit in Albania have been thrown into question as alliance members prepare for next weeks gathering in Turkey, according to Reuters, citing a NATO diplomat, a European official,...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Anthropic Restores Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 After U.S. Lifts AI Export Controls

Anthropic announced late Tuesday that the U.S. government has lifted export restrictions on its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 artificial intelligence models, allowing the company to begin restoring user access starting...

South Korea Alleges Google Abused Android App Store Dominance, Eyes Major Fine

South Koreas antitrust regulator has accused Alphabets Google of abusing its dominant position in the Android app marketplace, a move that could result in a significant financial penalty and new corrective measures if the...

Microsoft Reportedly Plans New Job Cuts Across Sales, Consulting, and Xbox

Microsoft is reportedly preparing another round of job cuts as the technology giant continues to reduce costs while increasing investment in artificial intelligence, according to a Business Insider report published...

Chip Stocks Rally as Samsung and SK Hynix’s $1.3 Trillion Investment Plan Boosts AI Optimism

Chip-equipment stocks surged on Tuesday after reports that South Koreas semiconductor leaders, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, plan to invest up to $1.3 trillion in new semiconductor manufacturing projects, reinforcing...

Nvidia Stock Rises as SemiAnalysis Sees AI Data Center Revenue Beating Wall Street Forecasts

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares rebounded on the final trading day of the quarter after bullish supply-chain research from independent semiconductor firm SemiAnalysis suggested the AI chipmakers data center business could...