September FOMC hike still expected, but risks are higher
Aug 20, 2015 03:35 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks
Data is consistent with the beginning of policy normalization in September. Data on US activity received since the July meeting have been quite positive on balance and should push the FOMC toward near-term lift-off. This...
Minutes of Fed's July 28-29 Meeting
Aug 19, 2015 19:03 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks
The minutes provided no clues about the Feds preparedness to raise rates as early as the September meeting. Anticipating a clearer signal but getting none, Treasuries rallied and the dollar fell. While September remains on...
Trading Bunds vs USTs into the Fed
Aug 19, 2015 17:21 pm UTC| Commentary
The beginning of the Fed rate hike cycle is likely to restore the normal directionality of the Bund-UST spread. At current spread and FX levels, Bunds are unlikely to act as a strong anchor for USTs. However, the next...
Russia economic growth indicators signal extended recession
Aug 19, 2015 16:45 pm UTC| Commentary
Russia growth indicators for July deteriorated further. In particular, real wages declined 9.2% y/y from an unrevised -7.2% and revised -8.6% in June and investment fell 8.5% y/y from -7.1% in June , both were...
US consumer price index (July 2015)
Aug 19, 2015 16:21 pm UTC| Commentary
Consumer prices rose 0.1% m/m in July, slightly below the consensus estimate of 0.2%. After excluding the cost of food and energy, prices of core consumer goods increased by 0.1% during the month, also below expectations...
US CPI:Modest gains in services offset a fall in goods prices
Aug 19, 2015 15:56 pm UTC| Commentary
July CPI inflation rose for the fifth consecutive month as the drag from last years energy price declines continued to fade and as core prices rose moderately. Headline CPI increased by 0.1% m/m in seasonally adjusted...
Aug 19, 2015 15:51 pm UTC| Commentary
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in July and 0.2 percent over the last 12 months giving ammunition to the Federal Reserve doves to delay raising rates. But the Fed is signaling that it wants to start raising rates...
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