Investors positioned for Fed hikes in FX
Aug 20, 2015 05:41 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks
In terms of positioning, USD longs are still near peak levels with every currency net short versus the dollar currently, suggesting investors are positioned for a Fed hike in FX markets. Barclays expects the Feds rate hike...
Commodities selloff looks to be nearing an end
Aug 20, 2015 05:30 am UTC| Commentary
A bottoming in commodity prices is important for inflation expectations and bond yields, which have fallen in concert"The plunge in global IP growth in H1 has weighed considerably on oil and commodities, and a turn in...
U.S. credit spread widening not a strong signal for broader risk
Aug 20, 2015 05:29 am UTC| Commentary
US Treasury net public debt issuance has been zero since March as tax receipts have been strong and spending relatively flat. Many investors are worried that the widening in investment grade corporate spreads points to an...
Asian FX at risk amid CNY depreciation
Aug 20, 2015 05:19 am UTC| Commentary
Asian FX is logically the most exposed to further CNY depreciation, while the performance since suggests there could be more pressure. On the other hand, the sell-off in European equities appears overdone. In order to...
Global IP growth and trade look to have bottomed
Aug 20, 2015 05:08 am UTC| Commentary Economy
Global IP growth was zero on a 3m basis in May and the 4.5pp slowing in the IP growth rate since January was quite large and only slightly smaller than the slowdowns in the springs of 2010 and 2011. Of note, IP growth in...
If not September, when will Fed hike rates?
Aug 20, 2015 04:36 am UTC| Commentary
A September Fed liftoff is still expected, but acknowledge that the recent international developments make it a close call. The September meeting is still awaited for a number of reasons. For the majority of FOMC...
U.S. state finances continue to improve
Aug 20, 2015 04:34 am UTC| Commentary
An improvement in U.S. overall state finances is seen, and are no longer a major drag on economic growth as they were through the downturn and early recovery. Real state and local government spending was up 0.8% y/y in Q1,...
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