RBI inflationary expectations should soften in September

Sep 22, 2015 21:15 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Apart from the monsoon and Fed hike risks, most of the domestic pre-conditions laid out at the August review have been fulfilled. Commodity prices (INR terms) have eased further, with the CRB index (Thomson Reuters/ Core...

Receding risks of US rate hikes and catch-up in rains open the window for further RBI rate cuts

Sep 22, 2015 20:46 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

The Fed extended its on-hold stance in September, signalling the need for more data to justify rate normalization. Risks to global growth, primarily out of China, and heightened market volatility also received a mention....

USD long positioning at its lowest level since the dollar rally began

Sep 22, 2015 20:23 pm UTC| Commentary

Despite the dovish response to the Feds no-hike last week, some context on positioning is important, and could shed light on the USDs outlook. Since the USD rally began in mid-2014, stretched positioning has been a common...

Markets still on edge after Fed decision

Sep 22, 2015 20:16 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Second quarter earnings growth varied widely by sector. Healthcare earnings grew 15.3% year over year while energy companies earnings were down a whopping 55.5%. With such a wide dispersion in company performance,...

A truncated Fed due to US growth concerns could be traumatic

Sep 22, 2015 17:53 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

If the Feds upcoming tightening cycle were to be abridged because US growth tipped lower, unable to cope with the strain of even a modest sequence of interest rate hikes it would, at best, be problematic and, at worst,...

Despite the hawkish Fed, USD weakness ahead

Sep 22, 2015 17:27 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

We are witnessing the dying embers of a USD rally that once burned so bright, and we may be on the cusp of a weakening USD trend. The baseline view is that once the hawkish consensus falters the USD will weaken. The...

Global markets have another roller coaster week

Sep 22, 2015 16:43 pm UTC| Commentary

Global stock markets again had a roller coaster week. After early declines, stocks rallied until the FOMC announced that it had decided not to raise interest rates, citing concerns about weak global economic growth and low...