China steel production and PMIs remain contractionary

Sep 23, 2015 22:00 pm UTC| Commentary

Chinas steel production rates and steel PMIs are in contractionary territory, having remained weak for most of 2015. While steel production is falling at the fastest pace since 2010, it is notable that the steel PMI has...

Still bearish AUD but expect some resilience in 4Q

Sep 23, 2015 21:53 pm UTC| Commentary

If underlying demand for steel improves over the coming months, Australias key exports of iron ore and coal are likely to benefit. The broader macro backdrop for AUD remains negative, especially if the RMB continues its...

ECB to keep an eye on fragmentation and credit growth

Sep 23, 2015 21:13 pm UTC| Commentary

Looking at the flow of credit, the credit impulse may yet disappoint to support stronger growth. The ECB is thus likely to continue struggling with its optimistic views of a sizeable recovery in investment over the coming...

Euro area fiscal policy in focus in a new recession with ‘helicopter money’ remaining a mirage

Sep 23, 2015 20:55 pm UTC| Commentary

There are diminishing returns from further QE. This implies that fiscal policy is likely to take centre stage in any renewed recessionary scenario. However, while providing short-term support, the medium-term...

A weaker Euro area inflation outlook would trigger accelerated asset purchases

Sep 23, 2015 20:46 pm UTC| Commentary

An even weaker short-term inflation outlook due to negative spillover effects from depressed global demand is likely to result in accelerated asset purchases. In such a scenario, around 20bn of additional asset purchases...

Fed inaction and China weakness not necessarily a signal for the ECB to do more

Sep 23, 2015 20:30 pm UTC| Commentary

ECB president Draghi has gone to great lengths to explain that there is ample room for the ECB to adjust the "size, composition and duration" of its asset purchases. Many have taken this as a signal that more ECB action is...

Central banks losing their punch

Sep 23, 2015 20:19 pm UTC| Commentary

The European Central Bank (ECB) met today under increased expectation and ECB president Mario Draghi delivered a message saying "we would not hesitate to act" to prevent inflation from dropping further. Well, there was a...