China data watch: Stabilization by year-end

Sep 28, 2015 20:45 pm UTC| Commentary

Like many of us, Fed economists have questioned the reliability of Chinas GDP data. A 2013 Economic Letter from the San Francisco Fed compared the official GDP data with several alternative indicators constructed from...

U.S. domestic strength to outweigh external weakness

Sep 28, 2015 20:34 pm UTC| Commentary

In the US, the Fed will want to see confirmation that the slowdown in China had no material spill-over effects, either via the dollar, commodity prices or broader financial conditions. This is expected to be the case...

The 60 billion EUR question: can the ECB repeat the trick?

Sep 28, 2015 17:46 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

It is becoming clearer to markets the ECB is about to embark on another round of QE. So why is the EUR not a lot lower in anticipation of further QE? What has been seen historically is that the anticipation of QE drives...

Slower job growth not an obstacle for the Fed

Sep 28, 2015 16:50 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Job growth has been running at an impressive pace since early last year, pushing the unemployment rate from 6.6% to 5.1% - very close to the assumed level of NAIRU (around 5.0%). The rapid job growth has been helped along...

When will Japan normalize interest rates?

Sep 28, 2015 16:38 pm UTC| Commentary

It has become increasingly likely the US will begin hiking rates before end-2015 and incrementally normalize interest rates after that, but what about Japan? Given some are expecting the BoJ to ease further amid...

Mexico's labor market stabilizing on better labor conditions

Sep 28, 2015 16:27 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Mexicos unemployment rate remained flat in August with respect to the one observed in July. This was mainly driven by an unexpected increase in the participation rate of almost 80bp in seasonally adjusted data reaching...

US Consumer spending picks up speed in August

Sep 28, 2015 15:53 pm UTC| Commentary

Personal income rose 0.3% in August, slightly below market expectations for a 0.4% gain. After removing inflation and taxes, real disposable personal income was also up 0.3% on the month. Personal consumption rose by...