Policy decision: BoE likely to be much more cautious

Oct 07, 2015 20:48 pm UTC| Commentary

The BoEs policy decision this week raises two key questions: what will they say about the risks from China and how will the vote evolve? Before Mondays UK PMI services drop the BoE was not expected to make big changes to...

UK housing supply-demand imbalance continues

Oct 07, 2015 20:24 pm UTC| Commentary

The mortgage data tell us that the level of housing transactions is growing only very slowly, despite generally supportive financial conditions and economic environment. One of the reasons seems to be a lack of supply. The...

Metal Supply & Demand Series

Metals and mining turning tide, but near-term demand outlook critical

Oct 07, 2015 17:47 pm UTC| Commentary

Better cyclical demand should increase conviction around base case commodity prices which together with historically attractive valuation, a four decade trough in company fundamentals and continued supply discipline,...

Norwegian budget points to slightly higher NGB issuance

Oct 07, 2015 16:41 pm UTC| Commentary

The governments funding need stems from various lending schemes, such as student loans and mortgages for public employees. While the deficit of the day to day running of the government is funded by a transfer from the...

Taiwan's trade recession extends into September

Oct 07, 2015 16:24 pm UTC| Commentary

Exports extended their double-digit decline for the fourth consecutive month, falling by 14.6% (Aug: -14.8%; Jul: -12.0%), below expectations (Barclays: -12.0%; consensus: -11.2%). The persistent trade recession brings the...

Worries about a sharp drop in the services PMI, will inject more caution into BoE language this month.

Oct 07, 2015 15:10 pm UTC| Commentary

Economist do not dispute the Services PMI was an important negative surprise and that this, along with heightened external worries, needs to be reflected in the Bank of Englands message. However, it needs to be considered...

GBP monthly currency outlook (6-12 Month)

Oct 07, 2015 12:23 pm UTC| Commentary

Longer-term, there are two key risks for GBP - the UKs unsustainable current account deficit and the EU referendum, promised for end-2017 at the latest. We think both are manageable, however, and the current account may...