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Thailand’s economy likely experienced slower growth in Q1 2025 due to muted private investment, softer household spending, and a decline in Chinese tourist arrivals, according to a Reuters poll of 20 economists. The Southeast Asian nation is projected to grow 2.9% year-on-year for the January–March period, down from 3.2% in Q4 2024. Forecasts ranged from 2.2% to 3.8%.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, GDP is expected to grow a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, slightly above the 0.4% gain in the previous quarter. Despite the drag from investment—down 1.6% in 2024—exports have remained a key growth driver, thanks to a rush to ship goods ahead of possible U.S. tariffs. Private consumption has also continued to grow steadily.
According to the Bank of Thailand, subdued domestic demand and weaker Chinese tourism were offset by stronger exports and increased government spending. The central bank recently cut its policy rate by 25 basis points for a second consecutive time to boost the economy.
Markets strategist Poon Panichpibool from Krung Thai Bank noted that low business confidence continues to weigh on investment. Meanwhile, Thailand faces potential U.S. tariffs of up to 36%, although officials are optimistic about negotiating a trade deal that would standardize tariffs at around 10%, similar to Vietnam’s terms.
Economists are also tempering their outlooks, with April’s survey lowering Thailand’s 2025 growth forecast to 2.1%, down from 2.9% in January. This remains slightly above the Bank of Thailand’s 2.0% and the IMF’s 1.8% projections.
Thailand’s official Q1 GDP figures will be released on May 19.
