Thailand’s economy likely experienced slower growth in Q1 2025 due to muted private investment, softer household spending, and a decline in Chinese tourist arrivals, according to a Reuters poll of 20 economists. The Southeast Asian nation is projected to grow 2.9% year-on-year for the January–March period, down from 3.2% in Q4 2024. Forecasts ranged from 2.2% to 3.8%.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, GDP is expected to grow a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, slightly above the 0.4% gain in the previous quarter. Despite the drag from investment—down 1.6% in 2024—exports have remained a key growth driver, thanks to a rush to ship goods ahead of possible U.S. tariffs. Private consumption has also continued to grow steadily.
According to the Bank of Thailand, subdued domestic demand and weaker Chinese tourism were offset by stronger exports and increased government spending. The central bank recently cut its policy rate by 25 basis points for a second consecutive time to boost the economy.
Markets strategist Poon Panichpibool from Krung Thai Bank noted that low business confidence continues to weigh on investment. Meanwhile, Thailand faces potential U.S. tariffs of up to 36%, although officials are optimistic about negotiating a trade deal that would standardize tariffs at around 10%, similar to Vietnam’s terms.
Economists are also tempering their outlooks, with April’s survey lowering Thailand’s 2025 growth forecast to 2.1%, down from 2.9% in January. This remains slightly above the Bank of Thailand’s 2.0% and the IMF’s 1.8% projections.
Thailand’s official Q1 GDP figures will be released on May 19.


Gold Holds Near $4,275 as Rising Treasury Yields Fuel Fed Rate Hike Bets
Asian Currencies Mixed as Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High
Canadian Dollar Faces Pressure as Fed-BoC Policy Gap Widens
US Comfortable With Canada Trade Standoff as Import Bans Loom
Japanese Bank Stocks Surge as Bond Yields Fuel Rate Hike Bets
Germany’s 2026 Growth Outlook Strengthens on Fiscal Spending
Asian Stocks Fall as Bond Yields Surge Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
U.S. Dollar Hits Two-Month High as Oil, Treasury Yields Surge
Asian Stocks Fall as Surging Bond Yields Rattle Markets
US 10-Year Treasury Yield at 6% Emerges as New Market Risk Threshold
Trump, Xi Focus on Trade and AI at White House Summit
RBI Uses $10 Billion Currency Swaps to Drain Excess Rupee Liquidity
Australia Unemployment Hits Five-Year High Despite Strong Jobs Growth
Oil Prices Jump 3% as Houthi Attack Revives Supply Fears
Fed’s Hammack Says Bond Yield Surge Is Not Driven by Inflation Fears
Fed Unveils Stablecoin Rules Under GENIUS Act 



