Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Tied in Brazil Runoff Poll

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain locked in a statistical tie in a potential presidential runoff, according to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released Wednesday, highlighting the closely contested nature of Brazil’s 2026 election.

The latest survey puts Lula at 47.7% support in a hypothetical second-round matchup, narrowly ahead of Bolsonaro at 47.4%. With the difference well inside the poll’s one-percentage-point margin of error, the results represent a statistical tie rather than a clear advantage for either candidate.

The numbers mark a small shift from the AtlasIntel poll released on September 17, when Bolsonaro registered 47.2% support against Lula’s 46.8%. That earlier result was also within the survey’s margin of error.

Lula also holds a numerical lead in the latest first-round scenario, receiving 45.8% of voter support compared with 43.4% for Bolsonaro. Renan Santos follows with 4.5%, while Augusto Cury receives 2.1% and Ronaldo Caiado registers 1.3%.

The previous AtlasIntel survey showed Lula with 44.1% in the first round and Bolsonaro at 41.7%, indicating that both candidates have gained support as election day approaches.

Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for October 4. Under the country’s electoral system, a candidate must secure more than 50% of valid votes to win outright. If no contender reaches that threshold, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff scheduled for October 25.

AtlasIntel surveyed 5,015 people between September 17 and September 22. The poll carries a margin of error of one percentage point.

The latest figures underscore a highly competitive presidential race, with the polling gap between Lula and Bolsonaro remaining too small to distinguish their support statistically ahead of the first round.