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Gold trades weak as the chance of a rate cut diminishes. It hit an intraday low of $3282 and is currently trading around $3300.
US initial jobless claims rose to 240,000 for the week ending May 24, 2025, outstripping the expectations of 230,000 and reaching the highest level in several weeks, even if still under recessionary thresholds. At 1.92 million, ongoing claims also increased; while the labor market is still deemed to be resilient, these statistics point to some weakening compared to the year before, with people possibly taking longer to get work; a significant rise in claims happened in Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana, Connecticut, and New York; Virginia, Michigan, California, Florida, and Massachusetts saw declines.
.Shifting Rate Hike Expectations
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in the June 18th, 2025 meeting have increased to 94.60% from 94.40% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding below short-term moving averages 34 EMA and above 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3280 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3245/$3230/$3200/$3165/$3135/$3100/$3000. The near-term resistance is at $3310 with potential price targets at $3330/$3350/$3365/$3378/$3400/$3415/$3465/$3500.
It is good to sell on rallies around $3300 with a stop-loss at $3325 for a target price of $3200.
