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Germany’s private-sector momentum swung back into positive territory in June, signaling the first uptick since April and fueling hopes that Europe’s largest economy can dodge a third consecutive year of contraction. The flash HCOB composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from S&P Global climbed to 50.4, up sharply from May’s 48.5 and beating the Reuters consensus of 49.0. Crossing the 50-point threshold marks a return to growth for German business activity.
Factories powered the revival. The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 from 48.3, the highest reading since early 2023, as new orders posted their strongest expansion in more than three years. Hamburg Commercial Bank chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia noted the data “suggest Germany’s industrial engine is finally restarting,” offering a welcome boost after two straight annual GDP declines.
The services sector, while still below break-even, delivered an encouraging improvement: its index jumped to 49.4 from 47.1, comfortably ahead of forecasts for 47.5. Together, the manufacturing and services industries account for over two-thirds of German output, so even modest gains can ripple through the broader euro-zone economy.
Survey responses collected between 12 and 19 June follow recent upgrades by four leading German economic institutes, which now predict growth in 2025. Challenges such as elevated energy costs and fragile global demand persist, yet June’s PMI figures hint that Germany may be turning the corner sooner than feared.
Whether these green shoots translate into hard-data GDP growth will become clearer with upcoming official estimates, but today’s numbers offer businesses, investors, and policymakers a cautiously optimistic signal heading into the second half of 2025.
