RBI likely to adopt further 50bps of cumulative cuts going forward; policy statement remains dovish: ANZ Research
FxWirePro: EUR/JPY Strategic Currency Briefing, Monetary Policy Implications, OTC Outlook and Hedging Strategies
Cryptocurrency Derivatives Series: Binance Making Abuzz With XRP-BF2 Listing and Mounting Volumes of BTC Futures
Cryptocurrency Derivatives Series: CME Embraces Bitcoin Futures Despite Price Tumble, Predicts Crypto-Options Contracts To Lure Investors
FxWirePro: GBP/JPY IVs Buzzing on Brexit Month – Time For ‘Put Ratio Back Spreads’ Capitalizing on Highest IVs
FxWirePro: Spotlight on Key Driving Forces For Turbulence in Euro-bloc – Deploy 3-Way Straddle To Hedge EUR/GBP
Regulatory Series on Cryptocurrencies: Ray of Hope For Bitcoin ETF Disappears As SEC Declines Bitwise Proposal
Digital Currency Revolution Series: SNB and BIS enter into a pact to explore possibilities and prospects of digital currencies
RBI likely to lower policy rate again on Friday as India struggles to get growth back on track, says Scotiabank
FxWirePro: ECB Policy Meeting Preview, EUR/JPY OTC Outlook and Options Strategy
In the euro area, the ECB minutes from the June meeting are set to be released today.
Policy meeting would be scoured for confirmation that officials are moving towards the further stimulus. The ECB pushed out its rates guidance to mid-2020 for the earliest increase, but President Mario Draghi revealed at the press conference that several members raised the possibility of rate cuts and a restart of QE. Recently, at a forum in Sintra, Draghi was more forthright in expressing his view that “further cuts in policy interest rates and mitigating measures to contain any side effects remain part of our tools.”
At the press conference, Draghi stressed that the governing council (GC) discussed several options at the meeting including a rate cut and a restart of QE. Draghi in his Sintra speech sent a strong signal to markets that more stimulus is coming. Hence, markets will look out for clues in the minutes on how ready the GC stands in announcing immediate steps already at the 25 July meeting. We still lean towards an announcement of an easing package coming in September. Earlier in the day, ECB's Coeuré will be speaking about 'Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy'.
Hedging skewness (EURJPY): Please be noted that the positively skewed IVs of 3m tenors that are also signifying the hedging interests for the bearish risks. The bids for OTM puts of these tenors expect that the underlying spot FX likely to break below 119.50 levels so that OTM instruments would expire in-the-money.
Risk reversals Substantiate Skews (EURJPY): Most importantly, to substantiate the above indications, we could see some minor positive shifts in existing bearish risk reversal set-up of EURJPY that indicates the long-term hedging sentiments across all tenors are still substantiating bearish risks amid minor abrupt upswings in the short-term. Please be noted that 3m IVs are overall OTC barometer is a noteworthy size in the forex options market that can stimulate the underlying forex spot rate.
Options Trade Recommendation (EURJPY): We’ve advocated buying 3m EURJPY (1%) ITM -0.79 delta puts for aggressive bears on hedging grounds as the mild abrupt upswings were contemplated earlier.
Alternatively, we advocate shorts in futures contracts of mid-month tenors with a view to arresting potential dips. Source: Sentrix and Saxobank