Market Roundup
•Spanish Unemployment Change -33.4K,10.0K forecast,-7.5K previous
•Spanish Mar Manufacturing PMI 51.4, 51.1 forecast,51.5 previous
•French Mar Manufacturing PMI 46.2,45.8 forecast,47.1 previous
•German Mar Manufacturing PMI 41.9, 41.6 forecast,42.5 previous
•EU Mar Manufacturing PMI 46.1,45.7 forecast,46.5 previous
•UK Mar Manufacturing PMI 50.3,49.9 forecast,47.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.436% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.844% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.690% previous
•14:00 US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -0.8% previous
•14:00 US Feb Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) -0.4% previous
•14:00 US Feb Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 2.2% previous
•14:00 US Feb JOLTs Job Openings 8.760M forecast,8.863M previous
•14:00 US Feb Factory Orders (MoM) 1.1% forecast,-3.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•16:05 USFOMC Member Mester Speaks
•17:30 USFOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro initially dipped against dollar but recovered some ground on Tuesday as investors waited for euro zone inflation data to give clues about the European Central Bank's path. Euro zone consumers lowered their near-term inflation expectations in February but projections further out remained unchanged, a new survey by the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday.Consumers now see headline inflation at 3.1% in the year ahead, below expectations for 3.3% a month earlier, the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey showed. Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months also remained unchanged with consumers seeing a mild contraction while the unemployment rate 12 months ahead was also seen steady, the ECB added.The euro fell to its lowest since mid-February but was last little changed at $1.0745 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0782 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0853(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0720 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0661(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Tuesday after data showed Britain's manufacturing sector expanded in March and mortgage approvals rose in February. Survey data out on Tuesday showed that British manufacturers reported their first overall growth in activity in 20 months in March thanks to recovering domestic demand. Separate figures showed that UK banks approved the highest number of mortgages in February since September 2022, when new lending slumped due to bond market turmoil caused by Liz Truss' premiership. Sterling was last up 0.14% at $1.2566, after falling 0.58% on Monday as the dollar rose on the back of strong U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2664(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2681(13th Feb high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2540(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2476(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected economic data caused investors to rein in their bets on a June rate cut boosted dollar. Monday's U.S. ISM manufacturing survey data featured a sharp rise in a measure of prices in the sector, adding to investors' concerns that inflation will be slow to fall back to 2%, delaying the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank was in no hurry to lower borrowing costs after data showed a key measure of inflation rose slightly in February. The dollar index rose to 105.1 on Tuesday, its highest level since Nov. 14, adding to sharp gains on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9093(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9121(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9036 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8948(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed on Tuesday as fears of intervention by Japanese officials kept investors cautious. The Japanese yen was last flat at 151.67 per dollar, after earlier dipping to 151.79. It has traded in a tight range since reaching a 34-year trough of 151.975 on Wednesday, which spurred Japan to step up warnings of intervention. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that he would not rule out any options to respond to disorderly currency moves. Japanese authorities intervened in 2022 when the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. The yen's decline has come despite the Bank of Japan's first interest rate hike since 2007 last month, with officials cautious about further tightening amid a fragile exit from decades of deflation. Strong resistance can be seen at 152.40(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.40(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.18 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.32 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks rose to a new all-time high on Tuesday as traders reduced their expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and waited for euro zone inflation data to give clues about the European Central Bank's path.
At (GMT 12:10),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.21 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.48 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.16percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to a fresh record high on Tuesday as demand from momentum-following funds offset a strong U.S. dollar and the possibility of higher-for-longer U.S. rates.
Spot gold was up 0.5% to $2,262.51 per ounce by 1055 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,266.59. The bullion has been hitting fresh record highs for three sessions in a row.
Global oil benchmark Brent rose above $88 a barrel for the first time since October on Tuesday as oil supplies faced fresh threats with more Ukranian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Brent futures for June delivery were up $1.29, or nearly 1.5%, at $88.71 a barrel by 0912 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May rose $1.30, or about 1.6%, to $85.01.
