Market Roundup
•Switzerland Mar PPI (YoY) -2.1% forecast, -2.0% previous
•Switzerland Mar PPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Feb Industrial Production (MoM) 0.8%,0.8% forecast,-3.2% previous
•EU Feb Industrial Production (YoY) -6.4%,-6.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US NY Apr Empire State Manufacturing Index -5.20 forecast,-20.90 previous
•12:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 116.9K previous
•12:30 Canada Feb Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.7% forecast,0.2% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Sales (YoY) 1.50% previous
•12:30 US Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Control (MoM) 0.0% previous
•12:30 US Mar Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Feb Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.8% forecast,0.1% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.697% previous
•13:00 French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.827% previous
•13:00 French 12-Months BTF Auction 3.461% previous
•14:00 US Feb Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•14:00 US Feb Business Inventories (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•14:00 US Apr NAHB Housing Market Index 51 forecast,51 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•12:30 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as sense of nervousness swept over markets amid the escalating geopolitical tensions. The threat of open warfare erupted between the arch Middle East foes Iran and Israel dragging in the United States has left the region on tenterhooks. U.S. President Joe Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran. The euro recorded its biggest weekly percentage drop since late September 2022 last week. On Monday, the euro was up around 0.2% at $1.0660 but stayed close to a five-month low of $1.06225 reached on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0665(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0698(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0627 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0584 (Oct 24th 2023 low).
GBP/USD: The British pound rebounded on Monday from its biggest weekly fall against the dollar since July, bouncing from a five-month low hit on Friday as markets prepare for a data-heavy week that could influence Bank of England policy in the coming months. Labour market data on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday will be key to determining how soon the BoE can cut interest rates, with markets pricing August as the most likely start date for policy easing. Traders are pricing just under a 50% chance of an interest rate cut in June, while only two quarter-point rate cuts are priced this year, which ING strategists say could leave sterling vulnerable if the data causes markets to price in looser policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2484(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2432(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Monday as the prospect of stubbornly high U.S. interest rates and escalating conflict in the Middle East gave support dollar. The dollar rose 1.6% against a basket of six major currencies last week after a small but unnerving upside surprise in U.S. inflation cast doubt over bets on U.S. rate cuts, while European policymakers signalled a cut within a few months.The initial moves in currencies on Monday seemed to be based more on the receding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations than a weekend attack on Israel by Iran, from which the broad market reaction has been relatively muted. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9158(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9194(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9107 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9082(9EMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as investors sought after safe-haven dollar amid heightened conflict in the Middle East. Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel late on Saturday in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria on April 1. The yen was the main loser on Monday, marking a 34-year low at 153.93 to the dollar.The yen's slide against the dollar has revived anticipation of currency intervention. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he was watching currency moves closely, and that Tokyo is "fully prepared" to act. Strong resistance can be seen at 153.93(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.68(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.86 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 152.66(9EMA).
Equities Recap
European shares inched up on Monday, with caution around Middle East tensions at the fore, while Temenos was on course for its best day in more than 15 years after saying Hindenburg Research's allegations were found to be incorrect.
At (GMT 12:10),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.32 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices took a breather on Monday after hitting an all-time high in the previous session, as investors sought after safe-haven assets amid heightened conflict in the Middle East.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,349.67 per ounce as of 1031 GMT. Prices hit a record high of $2,431.29 on Friday in anticipation of Iran's retaliatory attack.U.S. gold futures lost 0.3% at $2,366.10.
Oil prices drifted lower on Monday, with the market downplaying the risk of broader regional conflagration after Iran's weekend attack on Israel.
Brent futures for June delivery fell 70 cents, or about 0.8%, to $89.75 a barrel by 1133 GMT while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 74 cents, or about 0.9%, at $84.92.
