Market Roundup
• Swiss Jan Retail Sales (YoY) 0.3%,0.4% forecast,-0.8% previous
•Italian Feb Manufacturing PMI 48.7,49.0 forecast,48.5 previous
•French Feb Manufacturing PMI 47.1,46.8 forecast,43.1 previous
•German Feb Manufacturing PMI 42.5,42.3 forecast,45.5 previous
•EU Feb Manufacturing PMI 46.5,46.1 forecast,46.6 previous
•UK Feb Manufacturing PMI 47.5,47.1 forecast,47.0 previous
•EU Feb CPI (YoY) 2.6%, 2.5% forecast, 2.8% previous
•Italian Feb HICP (YoY) 0.9%,1.0% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Italian Feb CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•EU Jan Unemployment Rate 6.4%,6.4% forecast,6.4% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) 0.6%, -0.4% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY)3.1%, 2.9% forecast,3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 Canada Feb Manufacturing PMI 48.3 previous
•14:45 US Feb Manufacturing PMI 51.5 forecast,50.7 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment 79.6 forecast,79.0 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Current Conditions 81.5 forecast,81.9 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0% forecast,2.9% previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Expectations 78.4 forecast,77.1 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% forecast,2.9% previous
•15:00 US Feb ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.5 forecast,49.1 previous
•15:00 US Feb ISM Manufacturing Prices 53.5 forecast,52.9 previous
•15:00 US Feb ISM Manufacturing Employment 47.1 previous
•15:00 US Feb ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 52.5 previous
•15:00 US Jan Construction Spending (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.9% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 503 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 626 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:15 US Fed Waller Speaks
•15:15 US Fed Logan Speaks
•17:15 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as investors digested Euro zone inflation data. Euro zone inflation dipped last month but underlying price growth remained stubbornly high, adding to the case for the European Central Bank to hold interest rates at record highs a bit longer before starting to ease policy towards mid-year.Inflation across the 20-nation euro zone fell to 2.6% in February from 2.8% a month earlier, just shy of expectations for 2.5%, data from Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency showed. ECB has kept interest rates at record highs since September 2023, the first rate cut is seen in June, an expectation shared by investors and economists. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0883(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0793(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0729 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Friday after data showed U.K. house prices increased for the first time in more than a year in February.House prices posted an annual increase of 1.2 percent, in contrast to the 0.2 percent decrease in January as the decline in borrowing costs helped to bring an upturn in the housing market, according to the Nationwide Building Society,While the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose last month to 47.5 from 47.0 in January - revised up from a preliminary reading of 47.1 - it has been stuck below the 50 threshold for growth since August 2022. Sterling was last up 0.08% at $1.2634, after falling 0.8% in February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2685(Feb 29th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2709(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2640(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2629(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday after U.S. and euro zone inflation data and weak global factory surveys kept hopes of central bank rate cuts in coming months intact.Markets dominated by bets of both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank lowering borrowing costs in June. U.S. personal consumer expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, rose 2.4% in January, the smallest annual increase in three years, data on Thursday showed.Inflation across the 20-nation euro zone also eased to 2.6% in February from 2.8% a month earlier, according to Eurostat figures published on Friday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8846(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8900(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8756(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8693(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday after Bank of Japan policymaker hinted at the need to exit ultra-easy policies. Ueda said "I don't think we are there yet" on Friday when asked whether a sustainable 2% rate of inflation was in sight.Ueda's comments appeared to push back against a colleague's suggestion on Thursday that hinted at the need to exit ultra-loose monetary policy, boosting the yen. The dollar was up 0.26% against the yen at 150.36, after rising 6.3% in the first two months of the year. The moves put the Japanese currency close to its weakest levels since November and not far off the lowest since 1990. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.00(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.69(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European shares kicked off the month higher on Friday, buoyed by strength in global stocks after favourable U.S. inflation data and upbeat earnings.
At (GMT 13:19 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.51 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a one-month high on Friday and were set for a second weekly gain as the latest U.S. data pointed to signs of slowing inflation, affirming investor expectations of the first rate cut of the year in June.
Spot gold edged 0.5% higher to $2,053.50 per ounce, as of 1039 GMT, its highest level since Feb. 2. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.4% at $2,062.30.
Oil prices rose on Friday and were set for weekly gains as markets awaited an OPEC+ decision on supply agreements for the second quarter while weighing fresh U.S., European and Chinese economic data.
Brent futures for May were up 83 cents, or 1.01%, at $82.74 a barrel by 1050 GMT. The April Brent futures contract expired on Feb. 29 at $83.62 a barrel.
