Market Roundup
•French Feb Business Survey 100,99 forecast,99 previous
•French Feb Manufacturing PMI 46.8,43.5 forecast,43.1 previous
•French Feb Services PMI 48.0,45.7 forecast,45.4 previous
•French Feb S&P Global Composite PMI 47.7,45.0 forecast,44.6 previous
•German Feb Manufacturing PMI 42.3,46.1 forecast,45.5 previous
•German Feb Services PMI 48.2, 48.0 forecast,47.7 previous
•EU Feb Manufacturing PMI 46.1, 47.0 forecast,46.6 previous
•EU Feb Services PMI 50.0,48.8 forecast,48.4 previous
• Italian Jan CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
• UK Composite PMI 53.3, 52.9 forecast, 52.9 previous
• UK Manufacturing PMI 47.1, 47.5 forecast, 47.0 previous
• UK Services PMI 54.3, 54.2 forecast, 54.3 previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) -0.9%,-0.9% forecast,0.5% previous
•EU Jan Core CPI (YoY) 3.3%,3.3% forecast,3.4% previous
•EU Jan CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 2.7%, 2.8% previous
•EU Jan CPI (YoY) )2.8%, 2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
•EU Jan CPI (MoM) -0.4%,-0.4% forecast,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Dec Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.7% forecast,-0.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% forecast, -0.2% previous
•13:30 US Jan Chicago Fed National Activity -0.15 previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 217K forecast, 212K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,885K forecast, 1,895K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 218.50K previous
•14:00 Belgium NBB Business Climate -16.0 forecast,-16.4 previous
•14:45 US Feb Manufacturing PMI 50.5 forecast,50.7 previous
•14:45 US Feb Services PMI 52.4 forecast,52.5 previous
•14:45 US Feb S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0 previous
•15:00 US Jan Existing Home Sales 3.96M forecast,3.78M previous
•15:00 US Jan Existing Home Sales (MoM) -1.0% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -59B forecast,-49B previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories 3.879M forecast,12.018M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 US Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
•20:15 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Thursday after data from S&P Global showing that Eurozone private sector shrank at the slowest pace in eight months in February.The flash composite output index posted 48.9 in February, up from 47.9 in the previous month. The services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a seven-month high of 50.0 from 48.4 a month ago while the manufacturing PMI fell to 46.1 from 46.6 a month ago. The euro was last up 0.34% at $1.0856. It rose over 0.5% to its highest in nearly three weeks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0869(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0742 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against dollar on Thursday as upbeat UK PMI data boosted sterling.Britain's economy kept up its early 2024 momentum with a survey showing strong growth for services firms and business optimism at a two-year high, but inflation pressures are likely to keep the Bank of England wary about cutting borrowing costs.Adding to signs that Britain's shallow recession of last year is likely to be short-lived, the preliminary February S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which spans services and manufacturing firms, rose to 53.3, the highest in nine months, from January's 52.9.Economists polled by had forecast no change from January's reading. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2671(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2709(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2639(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.26055(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar initially dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday but recovered ground as investors digested minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting indicated policymakers remained wary of prematurely cutting interest rates.The bulk of Fed policymakers in January were concerned about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. Traders are currently pricing in just about a 30% chance that the Fed could begin easing rates in May, much lower than an over 80% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8817(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8859(Feb 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8739(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8687(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Thursday as investors awaited further U.S. economic data for a steer on interest rate expectations. On the data side, the focus is on initial jobless claims at 1330 GMT and U.S. manufacturing and services data scheduled for 1445 GMT. Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that a majority of the central bank's policymakers are concerned about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon.Markets are pricing in about a 72% chance of a June rate cut, the CME Fed Watch Tool shows. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.78 (Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.56(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European stocks were broadly higher on Thursday as investors cheered strong earnings reports and provisional survey data from S&P Global showing that Eurozone private sector shrank at the slowest pace in eight months in February.
At (GMT 13:01 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.34 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, driven by a retreating U.S. dollar and safe haven demand on the back of the Middle East conflict while investors await further U.S. economic data for a steer on interest rate expectations.
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $2,030 an ounce by 0951 GMT, having hit $2031.99 on Wednesday for its highest since Feb. 9. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 rose 0.3% to $2,030.
Oil prices rose for a second day on Thursday, buoyed by a softer dollar and another attack on shipping near Yemen.
Brent crude futures rose 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $83.38 a barrel at 1036 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.28 a barrel.
