Market Roundup
• German PPI (MoM) (Feb)-0.5%, 0.3% forecast, -0.6% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Feb)-3.3%,-2.7%forecast,-3.0% previous
• UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Feb) 7.610B, -59.402B previous
• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing 14.30B, 8.70B forecast, -31.90B previous
•09:00 EU Current Account (Jan) 37.9B,17.2B forecast,14.6B previous
•09:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (Jan)13.0B, 34.6B previous
•10:00 EU Trade Balance (Jan)-1.9B,12.8B forecast,11.2B previous
•Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 1.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Canada RMPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6%, 2.4% forecast, 7.7% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 1.1%, -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.3%, -0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
•Canada RMPI (YoY) (Feb) 8.6%, 8.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 412 previous
• 17:00 U.S Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 553 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as an expanding Middle East conflict and a surge in oil prices reinforced inflation fears Israel launched fresh attacks on Iran a day after President Donald Trump told the country not to repeat its strikes on Iranian natural gas infrastructure. Europe’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil has left it exposed to rising crude prices as the Straight of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global oil supplies, remains largely cut off. Attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf have pushed oil prices higher and threatened a rise in inflation above the ECB's 2% target rate. The European Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged on Thursday, but policymakers expect to discuss hikes in the coming months. Traders are currently pricing in two 25 basis-point rate hikes by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1546(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1625 (SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1416(23.6%fib a break below could take the pair towards 1.1386(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Friday as oil prices resumed their upward trend, but stayed on course for a weekly rise after the Bank of England raised expectations of rate hikes this year.The BoE on Thursday voted unanimously to keep borrowing costs on hold, and said it was "ready to act" to see off risks emanating from the war in the Middle East.Money market traders have moved to aggressively price rate hikes, with investors expecting 80 basis points of tightening this year, implying at least three quarter-point rate hikes. Markets have also dismissed the prospect of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, but in contrast to the BoE, do not expect the U.S. central bank to raise rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3384(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3525(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3303(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3210(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dipped against greenback on Friday as surging oil prices amid the expanding Middle East war fueled inflation concerns and raised the risk of further RBA tightening.Hawkish signals from central banks boosted bets on further rate hikes in Australia and a quicker return to tightening in New Zealand.The RBA has raised rates to 4.10%, with markets pricing a 56% chance of a hike to 4.35% in May and a potential peak near 4.85%.On the data front, Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose 48,900 in February from January, when it rose a revised 26,000. That was well above market forecasts of a 20,000 gain.The jobless rate rose to 4.3%, after holding at 4.1% for two months, as the participation rate climbed to 66.9%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7097(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7140(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7035(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6989(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar strengthened on Friday as markets reassessed global inflation risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep a relatively hawkish stance for longer. Geopolitical tensions remained a key driver, with the United States and Israel signaling restraint on further strikes targeting energy infrastructure, while Iran warned it would not tolerate additional escalation—keeping markets cautious.Energy supply concerns have eased slightly as diplomatic and policy efforts aim to stabilize oil prices, reducing near-term inflation fears but leaving longer-term risks intact. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged but maintained a tightening bias, warning that rising oil prices could intensify inflation pressures. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a growing focus on upside inflation risks over potential growth downside, reinforcing expectations of a near-term rate hike.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.22(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.67(38.2% fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.79(50% fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 gave up opening gains to trade flat on Friday, and was set for a third consecutive weekly loss, as an expanding Middle East conflict and a surge in oil prices reinforced inflation fears.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.82 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.29 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 1.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday but were still set for a third straight weekly decline, as expectations of a hawkish stance from major central banks amid inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict continued to weigh on sentiment.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,674.29 per ounce as of 9:01 a.m. ET (1301 GMT), on bargain‑hunting after prices hit their lowest level since February 2 in the previous session.U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.5% to $4,675.20
Oil prices dropped more than 1% on Friday after the United States announced measures to address the supply crisis, while key European nations, Japan, and Canada signaled support for efforts to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude oil futures for May fell $1.58, or 1.45%, to $107.07 a barrel at 1220 GMT.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for April, expiring Friday, dropped $1.30, or 1.35%, to $94.84, while the more active May contract declined $1.25, or 1.31%, to $94.30 at 1220 GMT.
