Market Roundup
• US PPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.7%, 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous.
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Jan): 46.73B, 4.72B forecast, -5.84B previous.
•US Core PPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Jan): 11.390B, previous 13.060B.
•US Core PPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.9%, 3.7% forecast, 3.5% previous.
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, previous 0.4%.
•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Feb): 3.5%, previous 3.4%.
•US PPI (YoY) (Feb): 3.4%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous.
• Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision: 2.25%, 2.25% forecast, 2.25% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75% forecast,0.75% previous
• 04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 2.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•04:30 Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Jan) 1.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 02:30 Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Wednesday as dollar firmed after the Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rates steady and projected only a single rate cut for the year. US Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, maintaining a cautious stance as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mixed economic signals complicate the policy outlook.Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations.The Labor Department data showed Producer Price Index for final demand surged 0.7% last month, the most since last July, and well above the 0.3% rise forecast by economists.In the 12 months through February, the PPI increased 3.4%. That was the largest gain in a year and followed a 2.9% advance in January.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1552(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1612 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1412(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1386(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Wednesday as dollar firmed after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, while a rise in crude prices and an earlier reading on U.S. inflation kept equities under pressure.The U.S. central bank's summary of economic projections (SEP) showed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate would fall by just a quarter of a percentage point by the end of this year, with no hint of the timing of such a move, while the inflation projection for the end of the year was 2.7%, up from the 2.4% view in DecemberInvestors are also awaiting more decisions from a host of other central banks this week including the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3390(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3220(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3189(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against investors digested rate decision Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada.The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11–1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.The Fed projected higher inflation as well as one interest rate cut for the year as officials weighed the economic impact of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran.The Bank of Canada kept its key interest rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, noting that higher oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict could lift global inflation, but it is too early to gauge the full impact on Canada’s economy.The Bank of Canada, which has held its key rate at 2.25% since October, said the Middle East conflict is expected to push up gasoline prices and lift inflation in the near term.U.S. crude rose 0.43% to $96.62 a barrel and Brent rose to $107.51 per barrel, up 3.95% after Iran's huge Pars gas field was hit on Wednesday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3758 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3797 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3704 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3659(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Wednesday as dollar gained after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting 11–1 in favor of maintaining the current policy. Governor Stephen Miran was the sole dissenter, advocating a quarter-point rate cut.Decision marks the second consecutive pause in rate adjustments, reflecting the Fed’s cautious approach amid mixed economic signals and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Chair Jay Powell highlighted that the ongoing conflict is likely to push near-term inflation higher but emphasized that it is “too soon to know the scope and duration” of its economic impact on the U.S. economy.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.71(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.60(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 157.52 (38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European shares halted their ascent on Wednesday after an attack on Iran's Pars gas field pushed oil prices higher and renewed fears of escalation in the Middle East, shattering the calm since the beginning of the week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.94 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.96 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.06 percent.
Wall Street fell sharply after the Fed held rates steady and projected only one rate cut amid rising oil prices and the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran..
Dow Jones closed down by 1.63 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.31 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.46 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell further on Wednesday, hitting a one-month low, pressured by a stronger dollar and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates amid the Middle East conflict.
Spot gold fell 2.9% to $4,860.21 per ounce by 2:58 p.m. ET (1858 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since February 6 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 2.2% lower at $4,896.20.
Oil prices rose Wednesday and extended gains after Iran attacked multiple Middle East energy facilities following a strike on its South Pars gas field, escalating tensions with the U.S. and Israel..
Brent futures were up 5.6% in post-settlement trading, extending gains after settling up 3.8% at $107.38. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude extended gains to 4% after closing up 11 cents, or 0.1%, at $96.32.
