Market Roundup
• Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 0.7%, 1.0% forecast, 0.9% previous
• Germany Import Price Index (YoY) (Feb): -2.3%, -2.3% previous
• Germany Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 0.3%, 0.7% forecast, 1.1% previous
• UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4): 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 3.5% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Feb): -1.4%, -0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Mar): 1.1%, 0.7% previous
•French French CPI (YoY) (Mar): 1.7%, 1.6% forecast, 0.9% previous
•French PPI (YoY) (Feb): -2.40%, -2.30% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Feb): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Mar): 1.9%, 1.9% forecast, 1.1% previous
• German Unemployment Rate (Mar): 6.3%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Mar): 0K, 2K forecast, 1K previous
•German Unemployment (Mar): 2.977M, 2.977M previous
• German Unemployment n.s.a. (Mar): 3.021M, 3.070M previous
• Spanish Current Account (Jan): 2.73B, 1.80B previous
• EU CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.5%, 2.6% forecast, 1.9% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.2%, 0.6% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Mar): 2.2%, 2.3% previous
• EU CPI n.s.a (Mar): 101.96, 100.71 previous
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.8%, 0.8% previous
•US Redbook (YoY): 6.9%, 6.7% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jan): -0.1%, -0.1% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jan): 1.2%, 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
•US House Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US House Price Index (YoY) (Jan): 1.6%, 1.9% previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Jan): 0.2%, 0.5% previous
•US House Price Index (Jan): 441.0, 440.7 previous
•US Chicago PMI (Mar): 52.8, 54.8 forecast, 57.7 previous
•US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar): 91.8, 87.8 forecast, 91.0 previous
•US JOLTS Job Openings (Feb): 6.882M, 6.890M forecast, 7.240M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Mar)-3.2 previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Mar) 4.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against dollar on Tuesday after data showing euro zone inflation soared past the European Central Bank's 2% target this month as surging oil and gas costs drove up headline prices. Euro zone inflation soared past the European Central Bank's 2% target this month as surging oil and gas costs drove up headline prices, but the jump was smaller than expected and core inflation declined, muddying the picture for policymakers.Overall inflation in the 21 countries sharing the euro currency jumped to 2.5% in March from 1.9% a month earlier, below expectations for 2.6% in a Reuters poll of economists, as energy costs rose 4.9%.Oil prices have nearly doubled as a result of the Iran war and the ECB is now debating whether to raise interest rates to prevent this surge from becoming entrenched in the price of other goods and services. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1520(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1560 (SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1398(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1369(Lower BB).
GBP/USD:The British pound edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as traders digested GDP data and assessed the Middle East war situation. Britain's economy barely grew at the end of 2025, official data confirmed on Tuesday, adding to the challenge for the government to keep growth on track in 2026 with the Iran war likely to hit demand and push up inflation.Gross domestic product increased by 0.1% in the October-to-December period, the Office for National Statistics said. Growth in the third quarter was also confirmed at 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics said.UK households put more money aside with the savings ratio increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 9.9%, the ONS said. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3285(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3360(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3186(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3146(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher against dollar on Tuesday after RBA meeting minutes. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting showed board members agreed it was not possible to predict the future path for interest rates, following two rate hikes this year amid ongoing war-related risks.The RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% earlier this month, reversing two of the three cuts made in 2025, in a closely contested 5–4 vote—the narrowest since it began publishing vote splits last year. Markets see a 60% chance of another rate hike in May, with an additional tightening of 65 basis points to come this year. Meanwhile, Geopolitical tensions continue to influence sentiment, with Donald Trump renewing his ultimatum, while Iran dismissed U.S. proposals as unrealistic, keeping markets on edge and supporting safe-haven flows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6876(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6923(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.683(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6788(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against yen on Tuesday amid verbal warnings from Tokyo on possible market intervention. Japan ramped up warnings on yen intervention and signalled that further currency weakness could prompt a near-term rate hike, as policymakers grow more concerned about inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict. In his strongest warning yet on yen intervention, Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said authorities may take “decisive” action if speculative moves in the currency market continue. The remark marked an escalation in tone, as it was the first time Atsushi Mimura used the word “decisive ”a term traders typically interpret as a signal of readiness to intervene.On the data front, the Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile costs of fresh food, rose 1.7% in March from a year earlier, data showed, slowing from a 1.8% rise in February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.47(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.07(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.59(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.82 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Tuesday but remained on course for their worst monthly performance since 2022, while oil prices were set for a record monthly surge, capping a volatile March dominated by the Iran war.
At GMT (14:00) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.90 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.84 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.87 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Tuesday but remained on track for its sharpest monthly drop since October 2008, as persistent inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates—driven by the Iran war—continued to weigh on the non-yielding metal.
Spot gold was up 1.4% to $4,572.89 per ounce by 8:50 a.m. EDT (1250 GMT), after hitting its highest price since March 20 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $4,588.
Brent oil futures surged again on Tuesday, heading for their largest monthly gain on record, as a fresh tanker attack in the Middle East and warnings from the U.S. Defense Secretary of intensified strikes on Iran heightened supply concerns.
Brent crude futures for May were up $5.31, or 4.71%, at $118.09 per barrel at 1326 GMT. Front-month Brent futures were on track for an all-time monthly gain of 63%
