Market Roundup
•Swiss Feb Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.4%,2.5% previous
•Swiss Feb Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.2%, 2.2% forecast,2.2% previous
•UK Feb Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 0.4% , 0.8% forecast, 1.3% previous
•Finnish Jan Trade Balance -0.10B, -0.28B previous
•UK Feb Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 1.7% forecast, 2.3% previous
•German Jan Factory Orders (MoM) -11.3%,-6.0% forecast, 8.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:45 ECB Mar Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast, 4.50% previous
•12:45 ECB Mar Deposit Facility Rate 4.00% forecast, 4.00% previous
•12:45 ECB Mar ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75% previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Exports 64.07B previous
•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 0.7% forecast,0.5% previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Trade Balance -0.10B forecast,-0.31B previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Imports 64.39B previous
•13:30 Canada Jan Building Permits (MoM) 4.6% forecast,-14.0% previous
•13:30 US Jan Trade Balance -63.40B forecast,-62.20B previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 217K forecast,215K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,889K forecast, 1,905K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.50K previous
•20:00 US Jan Consumer Credit 10.10B forecast,1.56B previous
•21:30 USFed's Balance Sheet 7,568B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:45 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•13:45 ECB Press Conference
•15:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
•15:00 German Buba Balz Speaks
•15:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•16:30 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the dollar on Thursday as investor caution ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. All eyes will be on ECB's rate decision, due at 1315 GMT, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at record highs. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at the press conference at 1345 GMT.The euro was up almost 0.2% at $1.0873 against the dollar.On tthe data front, German industrial orders fell much more than expected in January due to base effects, the federal statistics office said on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0893(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0915(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0840(March 6th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0810(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound gained against the dollar on Thursday following UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's spring budget announcement, which included several tax cuts. However, the market wasn't particularly surprised by the budget, shifting attention more towards the trajectory of the U.S. dollar. In his budget on Wednesday, Hunt trimmed national insurance contributions by 2 pence in the pound but stuck to a fiscally cautious mandate that eased anxiety about Britain's $3 trillion debt burden, boosted consumer stocks and helped the pound stay robust against other major currencies. Sterling rose 0.2% to $1.276, its highest in around a month, and nudged into positive territory against the euro , to 85.40 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2750(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2768(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2725 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2685(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as Powell's remarks, coupled with data release pushed the dollar lower. Powell said it will likely be appropriate for the Fed to begin lowering interest rates at "some point this year," although he reiterated officials need "greater confidence" inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. The Fed Chief described the economic outlook as "uncertain" and said progress towards the Fed's 2 percent inflation objective is not assured. Powell is due to deliver his second day of testimony on Capitol Hill on ThursdayImmediate resistance can be seen at 0.8826 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8874 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8780(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8783(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Thursday after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fostered expectations for lower U.S. interest rates this year. Powell said on Wednesday rate cuts will "likely be appropriate" later this year "if the economy evolves broadly as expected" and once officials gain more confidence in inflation's steady deceleration. Powell will speak again later in the day. Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for February is expected to provide more clarity on U.S. rate cuts.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.84(Feb 5th high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.33 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.70(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were subdued on Thursday amid investor caution ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, while British lender Virgin Money soared on a potential buyout offer.
At (GMT 13:22 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended gains to hit an all-time high on Thursday after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fostered expectations for lower U.S. interest rates this year.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $2,155.90 per ounce, as of 1230 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,163.50.
Oil prices slipped on Thursday as expectations that U.S. interest rate cuts could be delayed capped gains, though upbeat Chinese trade data augured well for demand in the world's top oil importer.
Brent crude futures were down 34 cents or 0.4% to $82.62 a barrel by 1242 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures inched down 29 cents or 0.3% to $78.84 a barrel.
