Market Roundup
•Italian Mar Services PMI 54.6, 53.0 forecast, 52.2 previous
•French Mar S&P Global Composite PMI48.3,47.7 forecst,48.1 previous
•French Mar Services PMI 48.3,47.8 forecst,48.4 previous
•German Mar Composite PMI 47.7,47.4 forecst,46.3 previous
•German Mar German Services PMI50.1 ,49.8 forecast,48.3 previous
• EU Mar Services PMI 51.5,51.1 forecast,50.2 previous
• EU Mar S&P Global Composite PMI 50.3,49.9 forecast,49.2 previous
• UK Mar Composite PMI 52.8 ,52.9 forecast,53.0 previous
• UK Mar Services PMI 53.1,53.4 forecast,53.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:15 Canada Mar Reserve Assets Total 116.3B previous
•12:30 Canada Imports 324.60B previous
•12:30 US Exports 257.20B previous
•12:30 US Claims 4-Week Avg. 211.00K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,819K previous
•12:30 US Feb Exports 62.29B previous
•12:30 US Feb Trade Balance -66.90B forecast, -67.40B previous
•12:30 Canada Trade Balance 0.70B forecast,0.50B previous
•12:30 Canada Feb Imports 61.79B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 213K forecast,210K previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Thursday after data showed U.S. services industry growth eased further in March, suggesting inflation is slowing, but not enough for the Federal Reserve to say when interest rate cuts can begin.The U.S. central bank had been expected to start cutting rates as early as June, but robust economic data boosted Treasury yields this week to multi-month highs as many in the market questioned that timetable. Fed chief Jerome Powell said policy makers largely agree lower rates will be appropriate "at some point this year," but only after they "have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down" toward the 2% target. The euro , up 0.6% on Wednesday, was up a further 0.15% on Thursday and back to the middle of a range it has kept for a year at $1.0854.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0797(9EMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0821(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0760 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0717 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady against the dollar on Thursday after data showed UK was on track to exit recession despite slower services growthBritain's economy looks on track to exit recession when official first-quarter growth data is next published, despite a slowdown in services activity last month, a closely watched business survey showed on Thursday. The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index - which covers private-sector services and manufacturing firms - edged down to 52.8 in March from February's 53.0. This was just below a provisional reading of 52.9 but above the 50 level that divides growth from contraction for a fifth consecutive month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2674(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2705(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2640(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2626(5EMA).
USD/CHF: The dollar rose against the Swiss franc on Thursday after data showed Swiss inflation eased to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years in March. Consumer prices rose by 1% from March 2023, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Thursday, the lowest level since September 2021 and down from 1.2% in February.It was the 10th month running that inflation has come within the Swiss National Bank's 0-2% target range, and was lower than expected. A Reuters poll had forecast a 1.3% reading. The Swiss franc dropped around 0.4% against the euro and the dollar after data showed. Analysts said the further fall in Swiss inflation in March reinforced the view that the Swiss National Bank would cut rates by an additional 50 basis points this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9073(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9100(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9044 (5EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9012(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher on Thursday but gains were limited on increased threat of currency intervention by Tokyo. The battered Japanese yen , down nearly 25% since early 2022 and around 1% after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates last month for the first time in 17 years, was expected to be one of the biggest gainers against the dollar among major currencies in the coming year. Currently trading at 151.7 per dollar, the yen was forecast to rise about 6.1% to 143 by the end of September, before strengthening another 2.9% to 139 in 12 months. The BOJ is forecast to hike at least once more this year. The last time they intervened was when the currency fell to lows near 152 per dollar in October 2022.Strong resistance can be seen at 151.71(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.86(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.62 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 150.46(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks climbed on Thursday with investors awaiting an inflation print and minutes from the European Central Bank's latest meeting, while shares of Basilea jumped following the U.S. regulatory approval for the drugmaker's bacterial therapy.
At (GMT 12:10),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.06 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices posted their fifth straight record peak on Thursday as Federal Reserve officials reiterated expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024, even if their timing was unclear, while traders await key U.S. jobs data.
Spot gold edged down 0.2% at $2,293.54 per ounce, as of 0815 GMT after hitting an all-time high of $2,304.09 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1 at $2,312.40.
Oil prices were steady on Thursday, shored up by concerns about lower supply as major producers keep output cuts in place and on signs of stronger economic growth in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer.
Brent futures for June fell 5 cents to $89.30 a barrel at 0919 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May fell 1 cent to $85.42 a barrel.
