Market Roundup
•Greek Mar Manufacturing PMI 56.9 forecast,55.7 previous
•Greek Feb Unemployment Rate 11.0% forecast,10.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI 49.7 previous
•13:45 US Mar Manufacturing PMI 52.5 forecast,52.2 previous
•14:00 US Feb Construction Spending (MoM) 0.7% forecast,-0.2% previous
•14:00 US Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.5 forecast,47.8 previous
•14:00 US Mar ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 49.2 previous
•14:00 US Mar ISM Manufacturing Prices 53.3 forecast,52.5 previous
•14:00 US Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment 45.9 previous
• 15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.105% previous
• 15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.230% previous
• 18:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.3% forecast,2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Monday following dovish comments from ECB policymakers Stournaras and Villeroy weighed on euro. The European Central Bank could possibly cut rates by a total of 100 basis points this year but there was still no consensus within euro zone's central bank on that, ECB's policymaker Yannis Stournaras said in a newspaper interview released on Sunday. Stournaras said last week that it seemed there was a consensus within the ECB for a rate cut in June and that the bank had no reason to wait for the Fed to cut rates first. Villeroy said at a speech at Paris Dauphine University that it was not of existential importance whether or not this cut occurred in April or in June. A growing number of ECB policymakers have supported rate reductions, with a June meeting shaping up as the most likely time for action, although there is also a meeting in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0809(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0832 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0775(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0736(Feb 16th low).
GBP/USD: The pound eased slightly on Monday as in light holiday trading market on account of Easter Monday. Investors are seeking new indicators regarding the timing of the Bank of England's potential interest rate reductions. Market sentiment now anticipates the possibility of the BoE shifting towards rate cuts as early as the June meeting, spurred by the central bank's recent mildly dovish tone in its monetary policy statement. Following the recent Bank of England meeting, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey remarked that market projections of two or three rate cuts this year are reasonable, thereby heightening anticipation for interest rate cuts starting from June.On the data front, investors will focus on to the United Kingdom's S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI final figures for March, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2664(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2741(March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2603 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2563(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little steady against the Swiss franc on Monday as data showing easing U.S. prices bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in June, while the yen loitered near 152 per dollar keeping traders on edge on the threat of intervention. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in February, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday, compared with the 0.4% rise that economists polled had forecast.The report also showed consumer spending rising by the most in just over a year last month, underscoring the economy's resilience. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.057% higher at 104.54, close to the six-week high of 104.73 it touched last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9066(March 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9118(Nov 2nd 2023 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8921(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against yen on Monday as traders were on edge on the threat of intervention by Bank of Japan. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Monday he would not rule out options against excessive currency movement and would respond appropriately, reiterating his warning on rapid yen moves. The spotlight in the currency market has been on the yen as its move toward levels last seen in 1990 revives the threat of intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen touched a 34-year low against the dollar of 151.975 on Wednesday and was last at 151.395 per dollar on Monday. Japan intervened in the currency market in 2022, first in September and again in October, as the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.93 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European stock market was closed on account of Easter Monday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices extended their record run on Monday as the latest data showing a slowing U.S. inflation trend boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver its first interest rate cut in June.
Spot gold was up 1% at $2,254.71 per ounce, as of 0926 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,262.19 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.7% to $2,275.60.
Oil prices added to recent gains on Monday amid expectations of tighter supply from OPEC+ cuts and attacks on Russian refineries while upbeat Chinese manufacturing data supported the outlook for improving demand.
Brent crude was 25 cents, or 0.3%, higher at $87.25 a barrel by 0830 GMT after rising 2.4% last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $83.44 a barrel, up 27 cents, or 0.3%, following a 3.2% gain last week.
