Euro area recovery remains on track

Economic activity in euro area gained further momentum in the first half of 2015, supported by acceleration in the periphery.

Past euro depreciation boosted export market shares, and euro area exports grew significantly more than world demand in H1. This is unlikely to continue, but domestic demand should be the main growth driver in the second half of 2015 and in 2016. The euro area GDP growth is projected at 1.5% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016, estimates Barclays.

The bank kept growth forecast for 2016 unchanged at 1.6%, but revised the composition of growth to take into account a downward revision of global demand and the renewed weakness in commodity and oil prices. 

The projections for the euro area, presented in their Global Outlook are identical to those published in the IMF's World Economic Outlook on 6 October, ahead of its annual meetings in Lima, claim Barclays.