Asian Markets Tread Cautiously Amid U.S. Tariff Jitters and ECB Rate Cut Outlook

Asian shares began the week on a cautious note as investors assessed shifting U.S. trade policy and awaited key economic data. President Trump’s unexpected plan to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50% starting June 4 rattled global sentiment, though markets showed limited immediate reaction. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Trump would speak with China’s President Xi to resolve issues over critical minerals.

Despite a court ruling challenging Trump’s tariff authority, analysts say the White House still has tools to maintain a base tariff rate of 10% and target further hikes, particularly toward ASEAN and EU trade. Markets remain wary, watching closely if the 50% tariffs will be enforced midweek.

MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index was flat outside Japan, with the Nikkei dropping 1.1% and South Korea’s KOSPI down 0.1%. U.S. futures slipped, with S&P 500 down 0.2% and Nasdaq off 0.3%, following strong May gains driven by hopes of softer trade actions.

U.S. economic data this week will offer insight into manufacturing and labor conditions. May payrolls are forecast to rise by 130,000, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Any uptick in joblessness could revive expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials are set to speak throughout the week.

Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to lower rates to 2.0% on Thursday, with speculation over another cut in July. The Canadian central bank is seen holding at 2.75% on Wednesday.

The U.S. dollar remained subdued, with modest moves against the yen, euro, and Canadian dollar. Gold rose 0.6% to $3,310/oz, while oil prices bounced as OPEC+ stuck to its gradual supply increase, lifting Brent to $63.85 and WTI to $61.95.