Market Roundup
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 214K, 211K forecast, 208K previous.
• Canada RMPI (MoM) (Mar): 12.0%, 9.3% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,821K, 1,820K forecast, 1,809K previous.
• Canada RMPI (YoY) (Mar): 23.6%, 9.1% previous.
• Canada IPPI (YoY) (Mar): 7.8%, 5.6% previous.
• Canada IPPI (MoM) (Mar): 2.4%, 1.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Mar): -0.20, 0.03 previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 210.75K, 210.00K previous.
•UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr): -25, -24 forecast, -21 previous.
•US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr): 51.3, 50.5 forecast, 49.8 previous.
•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 54.0, 52.5 forecast, 52.3 previous.
•US S&P Global Composite PMI (Apr): 52.0, 50.6 forecast, 50.3 previous.
•US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr): 10, 11 previous.
•US KC Fed Composite Index (Apr): 10, 11 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as renewed worries about the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz drove euro lower. Concerns had returned after Iran on Wednesday seized two ships trying to exit the Strait, leaving investors wondering if the fragile ceasefire with the U.S. that has allowed markets to rebound in recent weeks will be able to hold. German data showed that its private sector shrank for the first time in almost a year and business activity in the euro zone as a whole suffered a surprise contraction.In France, activity dropped at its fastest pace in 14 months and factory orders expanded for the first time in almost four years - a clear sign, analysts said, that firms are rushing to try to avoid shortages and price increases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1707(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against the dollar on Thursday as investors remained nervous over a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, but also on the back of more evidence of the pain coming for the UK economy from rising energy costs. A survey of UK business activity showed companies reported a record jump in costs in April, while a separate survey of confidence in the manufacturing sector showed deep pessimism and the steepest rise in costs since records began for that report in 1975.Money markets also shifted to show traders now see a 75% chance of a rate hike from the Bank of England by June, compared with a 50/50 chance at the start of the week. Sterling which has returned to where it was in late February, was a touch lower on the day at $1.349. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3528(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3610(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3449(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3407(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower for a third straight day against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as investors weighed continued restrictions on trade through the Strait of Hormuz and data that showed resulting higher oil prices boosted domestic producer prices last month. The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, was trading 1.5% higher at $94.37 a barrel.Canadian producer prices rose 2.4% in March from February on higher prices for energy and petroleum products, as well as chemical products, linked to the closure of the strait.Higher sales in the petroleum and coal product sub-sector and the transportation equipment sub-sector helped lift factory sales by 3.5% in March from February, a preliminary estimate showed.Retail sales data for February, due on Friday, could offer additional clues on the state of the domestic economy, ahead of a Bank of Canada interest rate decision next Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3709(April 20th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3770(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3649 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3606(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as greenback firmed as standoff between Iran and the United States escalated tensions in the Middle East and dashed hopes for a peace deal. Iran showed off its tightened grip over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday with video of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, after the collapse of peace talks that Washington had hoped would open the world's most important shipping corridor.Tehran says it will not consider opening the strait, normally the route for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, until the U.S. lifts a blockade of Iran's own shipping, which Washington imposed during the ceasefire and Tehran calls a violation of that truce. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.43(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares were little changed on Thursday as investor concerns over stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks and weak economic data outweighed upbeat corporate earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.87 percent.
U.S. stocks fell in choppy trading on Thursday as hopes for a swift end to the Iran conflict faded, while investors navigated mixed earnings and renewed concerns over AI-driven disruption in the software sector.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.36 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.41 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.89 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a more than one-week low on Thursday, pressured by worries that inflationary fallout from the Middle East conflict could keep interest rates higher for longer.
Spot gold was down 0.9% at $4,697.06 per ounce, as of 03:05 p.m. EDT (1905 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since April 13. Bullion fell more than 1% earlier in the day to as low as $4,663.69 per ounce.U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled 0.6% lower to $4,724.
Crude oil futures spiked $5 a barrel on Thursday after reports that air defenses were engaging targets over Tehran and of a power struggle between Iran's hardliners and moderates.
Brent crude futures settled at $105.07 a barrel, gaining $3.16 or 3.1%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $95.85 a barrel, up $2.89, or 3.11%.
