Market Roundup
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.7%, 1.3% forecast, 1.8% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.7%, 2.0% forecast, 2.7% previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.7%, 0.0% forecast, -0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 German Business Expectations (Apr) 85.0 forecast, 86.0 previous
•09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr) 85.7 forecast, 86.4 previous
•09:00 German Current Assessment (Apr) 86.2 forecast, 86.7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against dollar on Friday as stalled peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran dampened hopes for an immediate easing of Middle East tensions. While Lebanon and Israel extended their ceasefire for three weeks ahead of its expiration on Sunday, Iran showed off its control over the Strait of Hormuz by releasing footage of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, leaving the timing of the reopening of the world's most important shipping corridor uncertain. The dollar has drawn safe-haven demand amid the uncertainty. It gained ground in March as concerns over the conflict deepened, but gave back some of those gains this month as optimism over a potential resolution grew.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1735(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1677(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1596(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Friday as growing uncertainties over U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks gave support to the greenback. Iran on Thursday flaunted its tightened grip over the key Strait of Hormuz with a video of commandos in a speedboat storming a huge cargo ship, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he had ordered the Navy to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats laying mines in the strait, and step up demining activity. Trump’s comments came just days after he said he would indefinitely extend what had been a two-week ceasefire with Iran to allow for further peace talks. A host of central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, are due to announce their policy decisions next week, with investors focusing on what policymakers say about the war's impact on inflation and the economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3518(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3598(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3436(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3407(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased slightly on Friday as lack of progress in peace talks weighed on investor sentiment.Iran on Wednesday captured two container ships seeking to exit the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, tightening its grip on the crucial waterway, as investors watch if the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East will hold.The two sides now remain divided on a ceasefire, blockade, nuclear issues and control of the strait, leaving the strategic waterway still effectively shut and triggering an energy shock in a blow to economies across the world.On the data front, Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion territory, with the latest survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing the manufacturing PMI rising to 51.0. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7168(April 23rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7220(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7110(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7059(SMA20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as yen weakened as economic concerns due to the Hormuz standoff and delayed BoJ rate hike bets. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting ending Tuesday, as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict clouds the economic and inflation outlook. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities are ready to take “decisive” action against speculative FX moves, reinforcing intervention warnings after earlier remarks that Japan has a “free hand” to step in and that past interventions have been effective.On the data front, Japan's core consumer inflation slowed below the central bank's 2% target for a second straight month in March. The core consumer price index (CPI), which strips away the effect of volatile fresh food costs, rose 1.8% in March from a year earlier, matching a median market forecast. It followed a 1.6% rise in February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.43(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asia shares struggled on Friday and oil prices resumed their rise, as a shaky ceasefire in the Middle East war and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks gave investors little to cheer.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.91 % , Hang Seng was up at 0.17 %, China A50 was down at 0.17%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly drop, as elevated oil prices fuelled fears of inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates amid stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,661.33 per ounce, as of 0426 GMT. The metal is down 3.5% so far this week after a four-week winning run.U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 1% to $4,676.50.
Oil prices rose on Friday amid renewed fears of escalation in the Middle East after Iran released footage showing commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures rose 99 cents, or 0.94%, to $106.06 a barrel at 0410 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate futures were up 71 cents, or 0.73%, at $96.56.
