Market Roundup
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.7%, 1.3% forecast, 1.8% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.7%, 2.0% forecast, 2.7% previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.7%, 0.0% forecast, -0.6% previous
•German Business Expectations (Apr): 83.3, 85.0 forecast, 85.9 previous
•German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr): 84.4, 85.7 forecast, 86.3 previous
•German Current Assessment (Apr): 85.4, 86.2 forecast, 86.7 previous
•Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, 0.8% forecast, 1.0% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): 0.7%, 0.9% forecast, 1.2% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar): 0.6%, 0.7% previous
•Belgium NBB Business Climate (Apr): -14.2, -14.8 forecast, -13.7 previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr): 3.5%, 3.4% forecast, 3.2% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr): 48.1, 46.1 forecast, 51.7 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr): 4.7%, 4.8% forecast, 3.8% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr): 49.8, 47.6 forecast, 53.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Feb): -31.21B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Feb): -5.07B previous
•15:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 410 previous
•15:00 US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 543 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar on Friday as fears of a renewed military escalation in the Middle East kept investors on edge heading into the weekend. Iran has flaunted its tighter grip over the key Strait of Hormuz, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had ordered the Navy to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats laying mines in the waterway, and step up demining activity.Trump's comments came just days after he said he would indefinitely extend what had been a two-week ceasefire with Iran to allow for further peace talks. The European Central Bank will hold its deposit rate on April 30but hike it in June, according to just over half of economists polled by Reuters, in a bid to prevent a war-induced energy shock from knocking the euro zone economy off balance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1735(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1677(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1596(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Friday as traders kept an eye on stalled peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran while some strong UK retail data barely moved the needle.UK retail sales for March rose more than expected, official data showed. British motorists worried about fuel price increases rushed to the pumps immediately after the start of the Iran war, pushing up total sales volumes for the country's retail sector.The war in the Middle East has caused a global energy price spike, fanning concern around inflation and growth.The BoE will deliver its next policy decision on Thursday, with markets placing an 83% bet that the central bank will hold rates at 3.75%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3518(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3598(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3436(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3407(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar edged higher on Friday but lack of progress in peace talks kept investors cautious .Iran on Wednesday captured two container ships seeking to exit the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, tightening its grip on the crucial waterway, as investors watch if the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East will hold.The two sides now remain divided on a ceasefire, blockade, nuclear issues and control of the strait, leaving the strategic waterway still effectively shut and triggering an energy shock in a blow to economies across the world.On the data front, Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion territory, with the latest survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing the manufacturing PMI rising to 51.0. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7168(April 23rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7220(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7110(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7059(SMA20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as investors focused on escalating tensions in the Middle East that are pushing oil prices higher.Oil prices were stuck above $100 a barrel on Friday and European shares opened broadly lower after Iran flaunted its tighter grip over the key Strait of Hormuz and U.S. President Donald Trump said he had ordered the Navy to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats laying mines in the waterway. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting ending Tuesday, as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict clouds the economic and inflation outlook. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities are ready to take “decisive” action against speculative FX moves, reinforcing intervention warnings after earlier remarks that Japan has a “free hand” to step in and that past interventions have been effective. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.43(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday and were on track to end the week lower, as investors remained concerned about growth risks and the potential for a renewed inflation shock, with energy supplies still heavily disrupted amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.72 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday but were on course for their first weekly loss in five, as inflation concerns remained heightened on the impasse in the Iran war.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,704.63 per ounce at 1313 GMT, having hit its lowest point since April 13 earlier in the session, and is down 2.5% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for June delivery edged 0.1% lower to $4,721.10.
Oil prices, trading above$107 , faced renewed upward pressure after Iran released footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and reports that Tehran's air defences had engaged "hostile targets".
Oil has jumped more than 18% this week, set for its biggest weekly rise since the first week of war in March - a sign that hopes for a swift end to the conflict are fading.
