Market Roundup
• French CPI (MoM): 1.0%, 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•French HICP (MoM): 1.1%, 1.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•French HICP (YoY): 2.0%, 1.9% forecast, 1.1% previous
•French CPI (YoY): 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 0.9% previous
•French CPI NSA (MoM): 1.0%, 0.9% previous
•French CPI NSA (YoY): 1.7%, 1.7% previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, -0.8% previous
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb): -0.6%, -1.0% forecast, -0.6% previous
•Greek CPI (YoY) (Mar): 3.9%, 2.7% previous
•Greek HICP (YoY) (Mar): 3.4%, 3.1% previous
•US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr): 11.00, 0.30 forecast, -0.20 previous
•US Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.8%, 2.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•US Export Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 1.6%, 1.5% forecast, 1.9% previous
•US Export Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 5.6%, 3.5% previous
•US Import Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 2.1%, 2.0% forecast, 1.3% previous
•CA Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Feb): 3.6%, 3.8% forecast, -3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: 2.100M forecast, 3.081M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.024M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): -0.129M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW): -0.1% previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories: -2.100M forecast, -1.589M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production: 0.009M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: -2.400M forecast, -3.144M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports: -0.758M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Wednesday as signs of another round of talks between Washington and Tehran lifted risk appetite.Tehran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began on February 28, sending oil prices surging and igniting concerns about the hit to global growth and inflation.Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports after the collapse of weekend negotiations, but U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday talks to end the war could resume in Pakistan in the coming days.The euro which has recovered its war-driven losses, was down 0.1% at $1.177, near its highest since March 2.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Wednesday after its longest winning streak in a year, slipping slightly against the dollar as earlier optimism over a potential resolution to the Iran conflict pushed the safe-haven greenback to six-week lows.Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund sharply downgraded the UK’s growth outlook, projecting the economy to expand by just 0.8% in 2026, down from 1.3% previously the largest cut among G7 nations, largely due to the impact of the Iran war. Sterling was last steady at $1.357, after rallying nearly 3% from late-March lows. The currency had risen for seven consecutive sessions, marking its longest run since April last year. Megan Greene, a rate-setter at the Bank of England and one of the more hawkish voices on inflation, said it may take months to fully assess the lasting economic damage from the recent energy price surge. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(April 14th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar steadied near one-month high on Wednesday as optimism over potential U.S.–Iran talks continued to underpin the Australian dollar. Expectations that the RBA will maintain tighter policy settings compared to other central banks also underpinned the Australian dollar, keeping upside pressure intact.Additional focus will be on remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who is scheduled to speak later today in Washington D.C., which could provide further policy cues.On the data front, Australia’s March employment report due Thursday will be key. According to a Reuters poll, jobs are expected to rise by 20.0K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7156 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7183(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7073(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6990(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as modest dollar uptick provided support to the currency pair. The U.S. dollar edged higher amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict reduced safe-haven demand and improved overall risk sentiment. The U.S. and Iran are said to be preparing for another round of talks ahead of the ceasefire deadline, even as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. The yen continues to be sensitive to rising oil prices, as Japan depends heavily on imported energy, particularly from the Middle East. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares were subdued on Wednesday after the previous session’s rally, as investors digested corporate earnings and kept a close watch on developments in the Middle East.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.23percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.80 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Wednesday after touching a one-month high, as investors reassessed developments around potential U.S.–Iran talks and their implications for the interest rate outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,809.15 per ounce as of 8:47 a.m. ET (1247 GMT), after hitting its highest since March 18 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,831.60.
Oil prices held broadly steady after sharp losses in the previous session, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns elevated, offsetting optimism over potential U.S.-Iran talks to end the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures rose 49 cents, or 0.5%, to $95.28 a barrel at 1315 GMT, after falling about 5% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $91.37, following an 8% drop in the prior session.
