Market Roundup
• Japan Reuters Tankan Index (Apr)7, 18 previous
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Feb)24.7%,8.5% forecast,13.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb): 0.3%forecast, -1.5% previous
•10:00 Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb): -1.0%, -1.2% previous
•10:00 Greek CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.7% previous
•10:00 Greek HICP (YoY) (Mar): 3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Wednesday as signs of another round of talks between Washington and Tehran lifted dollar.Tehran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began on February 28, sending oil prices surging and igniting concerns about the hit to global growth and inflation. Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports after the collapse of weekend negotiations, but U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday talks to end the war could resume in Pakistan in the coming days. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said talks with Iran could resume over the next two days, with hopes for an end to the Iran war capping oil prices at under $100 a barrel. Tehran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began on February 28, a move that has sent oil prices surging and dampened investor sentiment.Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports after the collapse of weekend negotiations but hopes grew as U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday talks to end the war could resume in Pakistan in the coming days. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(April 14th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar steadied near one-month high on Wednesday as optimism over potential U.S.–Iran talks continued to underpin the Australian dollar. Expectations that the RBA will maintain tighter policy settings compared to other central banks also underpinned the Australian dollar, keeping upside pressure intact.Additional focus will be on remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who is scheduled to speak later today in Washington D.C., which could provide further policy cues.On the data front, Australia’s March employment report due Thursday will be key. According to a Reuters poll, jobs are expected to rise by 20.0K, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7156 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7183(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7073(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6990(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as modest dollar uptick provided support to the currency pair. The U.S. dollar edged higher amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict reduced safe-haven demand and improved overall risk sentiment. The U.S. and Iran are said to be preparing for another round of talks ahead of the ceasefire deadline, even as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. The yen continues to be sensitive to rising oil prices, as Japan depends heavily on imported energy, particularly from the Middle East. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, tracking Wall Street gains, as optimism over renewed U.S.–Iran peace talks pushed oil prices below $100 a barrel and helped stabilize the U.S. dollar after a seven-day losing streak.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.61% , Hang Seng was up at 0.29%, China A50 was up at 0.19 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell after hitting a one-month high earlier in the session on Wednesday, as prospects of another round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran lifted risk appetite, while rising oil prices added to higher inflation woes.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,811.19 per ounce, as of 0731 GMT, after hitting its highest since March 18 earlier. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.3% to $4,834.40.
Oil prices were largely steady on Wednesday as investors weighed the outlook for renewed U.S.–Iran talks, which could ease supply constraints, against ongoing disruptions in the Middle East, where exports remain restricted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.5%, to $95.22 a barrel at 0821 GMT, after falling 4.6% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $91.11. The contract dropped 7.9% the session before.
