Market Roundup
• US ADP Employment Change (Weekly): 39.30K, 40.25K previous.
• US US Redbook (YoY): 7.7%, 6.7% previous.
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Feb): 0.9%, 1.1% forecast, 1.2% previous.
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, -0.1% previous.
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Feb): -0.1%, 0.2% previous.
• US House Price Index (MoM) (Feb): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• US House Price Index (Feb): 441.4, 441.5 previous.
• US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr): 92.8, 89.0 forecast, 92.2 previous.
• US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Apr): 3, 2 forecast, 0 previous.
• US Richmond Services Index (Apr): 9, 9 previous.
• US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Apr): -2, -2 previous.
• US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Apr): -9.9, -13.3 previous.
• US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Apr): 4.3, 1.3 previous.
• US 7-Year Note Auction: 4.175%, 4.255% previous.
• US M2 Money Supply (MoM) (Mar): 22.69T, 22.63T previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 01:30 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q1): 3.6%.
• 01:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q1): 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• 01:30 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q1): 1.4% forecast, 0.6% previous.
• 01:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Q1): 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous.
• 01:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Q1): 3.2% previous
• 01:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q1): 0.9 previous
• 01:30 Australia CPI Index Number (Q1): 100.32 previous
• 01:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Mar): 4.80% forecast, 3.70% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as markets focused on central bank policy decisions and guidance while the Iran war loomed large.U.S. President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal on resolving the war with his top national security aides on Monday. But a U.S. official said later that Trump was unhappy with the proposal because it did not address Iran's nuclear programme.Markets are also watching out for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep rates on hold in what is likely to be Chair Jerome Powell's last meeting after Republican Senator Thom Tillis dropped his block on Kevin Warsh's confirmation process on Sunday.The euro was down 0.22% at $1.1694, while the British pound fell 0.37% to $1.3480. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1745(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1677(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1596(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against a stronger U.S. dollar on Tuesday as market attention focused on central bank action, including from the Bank of England, while uncertainty over the Iran war persisted.The Bank of England on Thursday is expected to keep interest rates steady, but markets will be paying close attention to any guidance or comments from the central bank about how the Iran war may impact the economy, and monetary policy.Money markets have been sensitive to developments in the Iran war since it began. As higher energy prices sparked inflation expectations and growth fears emerged, traders increased bets on rate hikes from the BoE.Besides the BoE, various other major central banks are set to stay on hold this week, including the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3543(April 28th high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3598(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3436(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3407(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as greenback firmed ahead of Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting this week.Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its two-day meeting ending Wednesday. They will also be eyeing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks closely.The upcoming meeting is widely expected to be Jerome Powell’s final one at the helm of the U.S. central bank. Senator Thom Tillis lifted his hold Sunday on the confirmation of Kevin Warsh after the U.S. Department of Justice ended its investigation into Powell.Warsh is expected to advocate for rate cuts, though surging energy prices linked to the Iran conflict could make other members of the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee cautious.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3864(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3980(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3806 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3748(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Tuesday as investors awaited a closely watched Federal Reserve rate decision in what was likely to be Chair Jerome Powell's swan song, with war in the Middle East raging and hopes for an imminent resolution dimming.The Fed's policy outcome due later in the day takes centre stage, with the central bank widely expected to stand pat on rates, though the focus will be on its assessment of the war's impact on the economy and on Chair Powell's future.On the geopolitics front, efforts to end the Iran war were at an impasse with Donald Trump unhappy with the latest proposal from Tehran, as the U.S. President wants nuclear issues dealt with from the outset. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.43(April 27th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares ended near a three-week low on Tuesday as mixed corporate earnings, uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, and caution ahead of major central bank decisions later this week weighed on sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.11percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.46 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, backing away from record closing highs as renewed concerns over the artificial intelligence boom weighed on technology stocks days before five of the sector's most high-profile companies were due to post quarterly results..
Dow Jones closed down by 0.05percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.49 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.90 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices closed up nearly 3% on Tuesday as persistent worries about supply constraints from the closed Strait of Hormuz outweighed concerns about the United Arab Emirates' decision to leave OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group.
Brent futures for June ended up $3.03 or 2.8% at $111.26 a barrel, marking its seventh consecutive day of gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June settled up $3.56 or 3.7% at $99.93 a barrel, after briefly trading above $100 earlier in the session for the first time since April 13.
Gold fell on Monday as a lack of diplomatic progress to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran kept oil prices and inflation concerns high, while there was also focus on key central bank meetings this week for updates on the economic fallout of the war.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,682.13 per ounce at 1:50 p.m. EDT (1750 GMT). U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled 1% lower at $4,693.70.
