Market Roundup
• •U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7%, 1.4% forecast, 4.4% previous.
•U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan): 3.1%, 3.1% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•Canada Employment Change (Feb): -83.9K, 10.3K forecast, -24.8K previous.
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Feb): 6.7%, 6.6% forecast, 6.5% previous.
•U.S. Core PCE Prices (Q4): 2.70%, 2.70% forecast, 2.90% previous.
•U.S. GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4): 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous.
•U.S. Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan): 2.8%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous.
•U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 1.1% forecast, -0.9% previous.
•U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 1.3% previous.
•Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Feb): 24.5K, previous -69.7K.
•Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employees (Feb): 4.2%, previous 3.3%.
•Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q4): 78.5%, 78.4% forecast, 78.9% previous.
•Canada Full-Time Employment Change (Feb): -108.4K, previous 44.9K.
•Canada Participation Rate (Feb): 64.9%, previous 65.0%.
•Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan): -3.0%, -3.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•U.S. GDP Sales (Q4): 0.4%, 1.2% forecast, 4.5% previous.
•U.S. Real Consumer Spending (Q4): 2.0%, 2.4% forecast, 3.5% previous.
•U.S. PCE Prices (Q4): 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•U.S. Personal Income (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•U.S. Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jan): 0.1%, previous 0.1%.
•U.S. Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•U.S. Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jan): 0.5%, previous -1.9%.
•U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Jan): 6.946M, 6.760M forecast, 6.550M previous.
•U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.2%, 3.4% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•U.S. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.4%, 3.6% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar): 55.5, 55.0 forecast, 56.6 previous.
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar): 54.1, 54.5 forecast, 56.6 previous.
•U.S. Michigan Current Conditions (Mar): 57.8, 54.9 forecast, 56.6 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped hit seven month low on Friday as the war in the Middle East drove investors toward safe-haven assets and weighed on energy-sensitive currencies such as the euro.A sharp and prolonged rise in oil prices would severely hurt the economies of Japan and the euro zone, which are heavily reliant on crude imports, while the United States would be relatively insulated, having been a net crude exporter for almost a decade.Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in January, which together with continued strength in underlying inflation and the dragging war in the Middle East, bolstered economists' views that the Federal Reserve would not resume cutting interest rates for some time.The euro was 0.6% lower against the dollar at $1.1439.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1521(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1621(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1435(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1403(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped to hit three month low against dollar on Friday as soft UK GDP data weighed on Pound. Britain's economy stagnated unexpectedly in January after weak growth in the preceding months, according to official data, which showed a loss of momentum even before the war in Iran that is likely to be a further drag.Gross domestic product has been essentially flat since June, the figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday, despite promises by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and finance minister Rachel Reeves to speed up the economy.GDP showed zero growth in January, dashing the median prediction in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.2% month-on-month increase. In the three months to January it rose by 0.2%, the ONS said, against expectations for a 0.3% increase in the Reuters poll. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3372(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3417(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3286(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3240(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a 10-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as investors trimmed bets on Bank of Canada interest rate hikes this year after domestic data that showed a surprise sharp decline in employment.Canada's economy shed 83,900 jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%. Economists had forecast a jobs gain of 10,000.The Bank of Canada is forecast to keep its overnight rate on hold at 2.25% next week and for the rest of this year, for now looking through inflation risks from the Middle East war.Money markets have priced in 42 basis points of tightening this year, down from 44 basis points before the data.The loonie was trading 0.7% lower at 1.3730 per U.S. dollar after touching its weakest intraday level since March 3 at 1.3741.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3767 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3848 (Jan 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3641(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday as uncertainty over the Iran war continued to disrupt energy supplies, heightening concerns over fuel prices and interest rates. The price of oil crossed $100 per barrel even as an Indian tanker sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. put forth measures to try to ease supply concerns.The conflict, now less than two weeks old, has created global economic uncertainty, leaving policymakers unsure whether to maintain restrictive policies or shift toward more accommodative settings.In Japan, the BOJ’s growing focus on inflation risks signals a shift from its traditional stance of supporting growth through ultra-low borrowing costs, reflecting changing price dynamics.However, the conflict involving Iran could also strengthen the case for caution, with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly expressing reservations about further increases in borrowing costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.8723.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.35(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.60 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell further on Friday, heading for a second straight weekly decline as rising Middle East tensions and inflation concerns weighed on investor sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.60 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.91 percent.
U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, finishing a volatile week driven by sharp swings in crude oil prices, as investors assessed the impact of the war in Iran on global oil supplies.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.26 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.60 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.93percent.
Commodities Recap
Crude futures rose on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, though analysts cautioned that the weekend could bring unexpected developments in the war two weeks after it began.
Brent futures for May settled at $103.14 a barrel, up $2.68, or 2.67%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April finished at $98.71 a barrel, up $2.98, or 3.11%.
Gold prices fell on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly decline, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict, which dampened rate-cut expectations.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $5,052.15 per ounce, by 1:44 p.m. ET (1744 GMT), and was down over 2% for the week so far.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.3% lower at $5,061.70.
