Market Roundup
•US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 115K, 65K forecast, 185K previous
•US Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.3%, 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.9%, 6.7% forecast, 6.7% previous
•Canada Employment Change (Apr) -17.7K, 12.9K forecast, 14.1K previous
•US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 123K, 75K forecast, 190K previous
•US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Apr) 3.6%, 3.8% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Participation Rate (Apr) 61.8%, 61.9% previous
•US U6 Unemployment Rate (Apr) 8.2%, 8.0% previous
•US Part Time Employment Change (Apr) 29.0K, 15.2K previous
•Canada Full Employment Change (Apr) -46.7K, -1.1K previous
•Canada Avg hourly wages Permanent employee (Apr) 4.8%, 5.1% previous
•Canada Participation Rate (Apr) 65.0%, 64.9% previous
•US Government Payrolls (Apr) -8.0K, -5.0K previous
•US Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr) -2K, 5K forecast, 15K previous
•US Average Weekly Hours (Apr) 34.3, 34.2 forecast, 34.2 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (May) 4.5%, 4.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Friday as investors stayed cautiously optimistic about a swift end to the Middle East conflict, after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire remained in place despite renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities.The United States said it expected an Iranian response as soon as Friday to its latest proposal to end the war in the Gulf, even as U.S. and Iranian forces traded fire in the region and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack.The dollar index measured against key peers fell 0.4% to 97.877, after hitting 97.623 earlier this week, its lowest level since February 27, a day before the war started. It was set for a weekly drop of 0.3% after falling about as much the previous week. The euro was up 0.5% at $1.17808 , poised to end the week a touch firmer. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1812(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1736(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling climbed against the dollar on Friday after Keir Starmer vowed to remain in office and “deliver change,” despite his ruling Labour Party suffering heavy losses in local elections.Support for Labour dropped sharply in areas reporting overnight, with results still coming in on Friday. Meanwhile, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, emerged as the main beneficiary, gaining more than 350 council seats across England.Investors remain concerned that if Keir Starmer were forced out, he could be replaced by a more left-leaning Labour leader, potentially leading to higher public borrowing and increased pressure on debt and currency markets.UK markets have been jittery ahead of the local elections, as some investors fear a shift in Labour’s policy stance toward higher spending, which could add further strain on government bonds. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3635(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3677(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3534(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3438(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against dollar on Friday as domestic data showed a surprise decline in employment, spurring investors to reduce bets on Bank of Canada interest rate hikes this year. Canada's economy lost 17,700 jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose to a six-month high of 6.9%, indicating continued weakness in a labor market that has struggled in the face trade uncertainty. Analysts had predicted a jobs gain of 15,000.Investors were pricing in 38 basis points of tightening from the BoC by December, down from 44 basis points before the data.The price of oil rose 0.9% to $95.64 a barrel, a day after renewed fighting near the Strait of Hormuz raised new questions about the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Oil is one of Canada's major exports. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3710(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3773(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3641(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3556(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the Japanese yen on Friday as markets digested stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and remained cautious about a shaky truce in the Middle East.Washington said it expected an Iranian response as soon as later on Friday to its latest proposal to end the war in the Gulf, even as U.S. and Iranian forces traded fire in the region and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack. Oil prices pared early gains but hovered around $100 a barrel.Data showed U.S. employment increased more than expected in April, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged for some time. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.68(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.16(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 155.18(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Friday amid broad-based losses, as a flare-up in the Middle East conflict weighed on risk sentiment, capping a week dominated by geopolitical tensions.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.32 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.09 percent.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite hit record highs on Friday, driven by gains in Nvidia, SanDisk, and other AI-linked stocks, while a stronger-than-expected jobs report signaled continued resilience in the labor market.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.02 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.84 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.71 percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent crude futures jumped as much as 3% on Friday, a day after the U.S. and Iran traded air strikes, with traders fretting over the future of the cease-fire and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures was at $101.47 a barrel, up $1.41 or 1.41% by 10:51 CDT (1551 GMT), after rising as much as 3% earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures was at $95.71 a barrel, up 90 cents, or 0.95%.
Gold edges higher on Friday and was on track for a weekly gain, as optimism over a potential resolution to the Iran conflict eased concerns about inflation and the prospect of prolonged higher interest rates.
Spot gold added 0.5% at $4,709.89 per ounce by 1551 GMT and has gained 2.1% this week.U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $4,719.60.
